ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 25 October 2023
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith
07:51 - The resilience of the economy
11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process
16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks
21:57 - The outlook for inflation
30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation
40:27 - What we can learn from history
46:19 - The process of finding insights from history
51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression
54:57 - Advice for other investors
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Every time that you start to see governments complaining about the amount they have to spend on interest |
| 0:11.6 | tells you that they're near to a point of either artificial interest rate repression or rate cuts |
| 0:18.2 | and markets themselves can't cope with higher interest rates on a sustained |
| 0:23.4 | basis because of the widespread use of leverage and illiquidity. |
| 0:28.7 | So I don't think the market appreciates that final point very well. |
| 0:33.5 | The Fed is given a lot of credit, rightly for how they've reacted, but the Fed's tightening |
| 0:36.9 | cycle hasn't had contact with the enemy yet. |
| 0:38.9 | You know, they haven't been tested by a market sell-off, really, or a recession. |
| 0:44.1 | And it's only then that their reaction function will be revealed. |
| 0:47.3 | And we're betting that they don't have the stomach because they don't have political support |
| 0:53.5 | to stay tight. |
| 0:57.0 | Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. |
| 1:00.0 | Imagine learning from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. |
| 1:05.0 | Imagine no more. |
| 1:07.0 | Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged, the place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers |
| 1:12.3 | in the world so you can take your manager due diligence or investment career to the next level. |
| 1:17.9 | Before we begin today's conversation, remember to keep two things in mind. |
| 1:21.9 | All the discussion we'll have about investment performance is about the past, and past |
| 1:26.1 | performance does not guarantee or even infer |
| 1:28.5 | anything about future performance. Also understand that there's a significant risk of financial |
| 1:33.1 | loss with all investment strategies, and you need to request and understand the specific |
| 1:37.8 | risks from the investment manager about their product before you make investment decisions. |
... |
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