Allan Lichtman: The Science of Political Prediction
Guy Kawasaki's Remarkable People
Guy Kawasaki
4.6 • 667 Ratings
🗓️ 17 July 2024
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode of Remarkable People, join host Guy Kawasaki as he engages with Allan Lichtman, the renowned political historian and predictor of presidential elections. Together, they explore Lichtman's groundbreaking "Keys to the White House" model, which has successfully forecast presidential outcomes since 1984. Discover how Lichtman's unique approach challenges conventional polling wisdom and gain insights into the current political landscape. Learn about the potential dangers facing American democracy and the importance of understanding historical patterns in predicting the future.
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Guy Kawasaki is on a mission to make you remarkable. His Remarkable People podcast features interviews with remarkable people such as Jane Goodall, Marc Benioff, Woz, Kristi Yamaguchi, and Bob Cialdini. Every episode will make you more remarkable.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | In my years of entrepreneurship, I've seen countless startups. And here's the truth. |
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| 0:48.4 | I'm Guy Kawasaki and this is the Remarkable People podcast. |
| 0:53.8 | We're on a mission to make you remarkable. |
| 0:56.6 | Today we have a distinguished guest. |
| 0:58.9 | His name is Alan Lickman. |
| 1:01.2 | Alan is an acclaimed American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. |
| 1:08.0 | since 1973. |
| 1:10.7 | Alan is renowned for creating the keys to the White House model |
| 1:14.3 | with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Kylus Borough in 1981. |
| 1:20.5 | This model uses 13 true-fals criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the |
| 1:26.9 | incumbent party will win or lose. |
| 1:30.2 | Alan has successfully predicted the outcome in approximately 90% of the presidential election since 1984. |
| 1:39.1 | If you've been following the Biden is too old and should step aside hysteria, |
| 1:44.0 | you may have seen Alan expressing |
| 1:45.8 | quite the opposite opinion on various talk shows. This episode provides insight into who and what |
| 1:52.3 | you should listen to as everybody loses their minds. Join us as we explore Alan's |
| 1:58.1 | groundbreaking work, his perspectives on the political landscape, and his |
| 2:03.0 | remarkable journey as a historian and political analyst. I'm Guy Kawasaki. This is remarkable |
... |
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