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TechCheck

AI’s reasoning blind spot 6/26/25

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 26 June 2025

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tech stocks continuing to rally this week, the NASDAQ 100 hitting another record high today as AI optimism buoys big tech names. We dig into why the market could be overlooking a major risk propping up the next leg of the AI trade. Check out the full deep dive on CNBC.com/tctakes.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Tech stocks continuing to rally, powering this market to a record high on the S&P, the NASDAQ 100,

0:05.9

hitting its own record high, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Broadcom, at or Neil are all-time highs on their own.

0:12.4

But could the market be overlooking a major risk popping up in the next leg of the AI trade?

0:17.7

Deirdre Bosa digging into that in today's tech check.

0:20.7

What are you worried about, Deirdre? Well, digging into that in today's tech check. What are you worried about,

0:21.5

Deirdre? Well, this is what I'm worried about. AI's next big promise is reasoning. These are models

0:26.6

that can think through problems, make plans, even act as agents. And this is a shift that is really

0:31.0

driving the hype around agents, artificial general intelligence. That's a promise that machines

0:35.5

could match or even surpass human intelligence.

0:38.2

The twist and what is maybe cause for worry is that these models, they do mimic reasoning,

0:43.6

but a growing body of research suggests that they just totally break down when pushed beyond

0:49.6

narrow tasks.

0:50.7

For our latest tech check take, we dove into that research, and we talked to some of the leading founders in artificial intelligence.

0:56.0

Here's Databrick CEO, Ali Godzi.

0:59.0

It's awful at very common-sense things that you and I would do in our sleep.

1:05.0

And that's, I think, a fundamental limitation of the reasoning models right now.

1:09.0

That was not true in the previous paradigm, and by previous paradigm, I mean two whole years ago, when we were doing pre-training,

1:14.5

the new model would just be better at everything. Well, that's where the market risk comes in.

1:20.1

Wall Street is betting that smarter models, reasoning models mean more demand for compute,

1:25.3

more infrastructure, more upside for names like NVIDIA and the whole AI trade. But if the models cannot scale or generalize, all that

1:33.3

spend might not lead to productivity. It could just be sunk cost. And that is something that

1:37.8

has rattled the tech trade before when progress stalled late last year and when Deepseek showed

...

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