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Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

Advanced Stats on Landry, Toney and Pitts (11/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

CBS Sports

Sports, Football

4.9721 Ratings

🗓️ 6 November 2021

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stats vs. man and zone coverage, yards per route run and more advanced statistics from Jacob Gibbs that help paint the Week 9 picture for Jarvis Landry, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts.

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Are you excited about Jarvis Landry or Cadarious Tony or Kyle Pitts? Are you nervous about them?

0:08.9

We'll tell you what the advanced stats say and how you should feel about those three players going into week nine.

0:14.1

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today in Five. I'm Adam Azer, joined by Jacob Gibbs.

0:18.2

All right, let's start with Jarvis Landry because I think a lot of people

0:20.8

think a big boost in value with Beckham being released. We saw it at the end of last year. He

0:25.5

really came on strong in the final five or six games. What do you think about Jarvis Landry?

0:30.1

Yeah, I think he definitely does get a big boost from Beckham's absence. Over the past calendar

0:34.9

year, only six receivers have a higher target per route run rate than Jarvis Landry, which I knew it was high.

0:42.2

You know, when Beckham was out last year, I knew it was high, but like that's really, really absurd and even higher than I thought.

0:47.5

And so what that really led me to is the fact that his target per out run rate in 2021 is just like unbelievable.

0:53.9

Even while sharing the field with Beckham, he's been targeted at one of the highest rates in the NFL. It's actually dragged his rate up from what we saw last year, you know, over the past calendar year, which is just nuts. Been targeted on 34% of his routes run over the past two games. And so I think some of that is, you know, small sample sizing and he was kind of eased into that first game. But that's really, really exciting. He's clearly the number one guy for Cleveland. And then in this matchup specifically, um, the Bengals use a lot of zone coverage and just kind of force teams to beat them short. We're seeing a lot more defenses go in this direction and Landry has been one of the best zone busters in the NFL since the start of 2020.

1:30.3

He started per hour more defenses go in this direction. And Landry has been one of the best zone busters in the NFL

1:28.3

since the start of 2020. His target per out run rate is up to 28%, which is top five among line

1:34.8

receivers, win-facing zone coverage. And his yard per out run rate is up from 1.6 versus man

1:39.6

to 2.4 versus zone. So I think everything sets up very well. The only real downside is if Cleveland goes really run heavy in the spot. All right. How about Cadarius, Tony? You really let me down last week. I stick my neck out for Cadarious Tony every week, but I've certainly backed off here. What do you think about him in this match? It looks like Kenny Gallaudet is going to play, but he's got the Raiders who actually give up the third few as fantasy points to wide receivers. what do you think for Tony? I'm not ready to back off quite yet. I'm right there with you. I'm really excited about Tony. His per out rates are absolutely absurd. He ranks sixth in a yards per out run and seventh in target spout run among players with 125 routes or more, like higher than AJ Brown in both those categories. Just absolutely nice. Wow. So like that's probably going to regress. But still, what we've seen is really, really exciting. I think it's kind of flown under the radar a little bit. And so if that translates, like it could with Stern Shepard, not in the picture here, I think this is a matchup where he should continue to be targeted at a high rate. The Raiders use zone coverage more than any team in the NFL. And so they, again, just kind of really keep everything in front of them. And given Tony's route tree and his splits versus zone, I think it makes sense that he will probably continue to be targeted at a high rate here. He's been targeted on 30% of his routes run and averaged over three yards per hour run rate versus zone this year,

2:51.4

which is obviously small, simple size, but he's been better against him college as well. So I'm really, really excited. I think he might have a blowup game here. It's your fault. You're the reason, I guess, why I like him so much. I'm just blaming you from now on. Okay, so I haven't been a DFS lineup. but I think that's a pretty good idea because you know he's discounted this week.

3:08.8

He's so cheap.

3:09.7

Now, let's discounted this week.

3:08.8

He's so cheap.

3:09.7

Now, let's talk about Kyle Pitts because coming off a terrible game, but 200-yard games before that, what do you think here?

3:17.2

I hope that people are going to be off of Pitts because the bad game last week, just gross offensive environment in Atlanta, and the fact that Titan has actually a lot of options this week in DFS. It's really, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's kind of a challenging spot against New Orleans. Atlanta's offense could struggle, but if they can move the ball, there's huge upside here. The Saints play a ton of man coverage, and so teams typically attack them deep. They have the second highest opponent average depth of target of any team in the NFL. And so if Atlanta's playing from behind, they're probably going to have to attack aggressively downfield.

3:43.7

And Pence is really the only guy that is... highest opponent average depth of target of any team in the NFL. And so if Atlanta's playing from behind, they're probably going to have to attack aggressively

...

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