ADP steals spotlight and reports jobs losses
Wall Street Breakfast
Seeking Alpha
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 1 October 2025
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Show Notes
Nike up on turnaround enthusiasm
Reddit slumps as ChatGPT citations drop
China’s Golden Week kicks off
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis. |
| 0:09.8 | Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, October 1st, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story so far. |
| 0:16.0 | Along the Black Sheep of the Economic Data family, ADP's jobs report is now having its moment in the sun |
| 0:20.8 | and an outsize impact on the market. With the government shut down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| 0:25.4 | is down to just one employee, Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski. And in the absence of the |
| 0:30.6 | weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday and September jobs report on Friday, the much-maligned |
| 0:35.5 | ADP report is suddenly in the spotlight. |
| 0:43.7 | ADP said private sector payrolls fell by $32,000 in September against expectations for a $50,000 gain. August was revised down to a loss of 3,000 jobs from a $54,000 gain. The markets were |
| 0:50.2 | quick to react. Stocks cut losses and long-term treasury yields fell. Odds of two-quarter-point |
| 0:55.0 | Fed rate cuts this year rose about 10 percentage points to nearly 90%. But Pantheon macroeconomist |
| 1:00.5 | Oliver Allen still thinks that the ADP, quote, provides very little information of value. The initial |
| 1:06.3 | ADP estimates for private employment flagged the slowdown in the official payroll's numbers between |
| 1:10.7 | March and June, but overstated its magnitude, he said. Moreover, ADP pointed to a rebound in |
| 1:16.4 | payroll growth in July that never materialized, while its longer-term forecasting record is also |
| 1:20.9 | poor. UBS chief economist Paul Donovan says, private data is like viewing the economy through |
| 1:26.0 | a keyhole, clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole, clear but with a narrow |
| 1:27.8 | field of vision. Official data is like opening the door, he added. Private data relies on official |
| 1:32.8 | data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modeling |
| 1:36.8 | becomes less accurate in the absence of official data. Meanwhile, the White House pulled its |
| 1:41.3 | nomination of economist E.J. Anthony to head the BLS. |
| 1:45.1 | The Wall Street Journal says it's unclear why, but a new candidate is expected soon. |
| 1:49.3 | President Donald Trump had nominated Antony after firing Erica McIntar for in August, |
... |
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