Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Adam Verkadamo, U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about key themes for global equities in the year ahead.

It's Wednesday, January 13th at noon in New York.

As we enter 2021, vaccines are bringing hope for reopening and to return to normal, but the

reality is that markets and the world are constantly evolving.

That evolution creates alpha opportunities.

So each year, Morgan Stanley research senior analysts from around the world

huddle up to discuss ideas that will shape investment returns in the years ahead.

This year's meeting over a video conference felt a little bit different, but the format didn't limit the breadth of discussion.

So I thought I'd share some of the high-level thoughts on trends that we expect to shape markets in 2021 and beyond.

First, post-pandemic economies will look a bit different.

We see a V-shaped recovery, but history tells us that every recession brings some economic scarring.

Given the scale of the great COVID recession, this time will not be different and how we heal matters.

Proactive fiscal policy has been a pillar of the recovery and we expect structurally

higher government spending going forward but it will prompt debate.

There's a real possibility that higher spending means higher rates,

higher inflation and sharper and shorter business cycles.

All of that means higher volatility and a broader role for active portfolio management.

Second, reopening will likely bring wallet share shifts.

The recession accelerated digital adoption trends,

propelling tech to new all-time highs as a percentage of the market.

A reopening will bring some wallet share reversion, but 20-20s winners aren't going to sit

...