I'm not going to lie. There's a good chance Aaron Rogers shows some signs of decline this year, but that may not keep him out in the MVP race. How can both these things be true? Let's talk about it today on Locked On Jets.

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Welcome, this is the Locked on Jets podcast, from the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. It is Friday, August 30th, 2024, and I'm your host, John B, from gangreneation.com. Thank you so much for making the show your first listener, first watch every day. Subscribe to the show for free on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast, so you'll get new episodes as soon as they're posted. If you enjoy the show and are listening on a podcast for us, please give it a five-star

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Helps us out, helps other Jets fans find locked on Jets. Today we have our weekly mailback show. Most weeks we do our mailbag on Wednesday, but because of all the roster moves the Jets made this week, we had to push it to Friday. So thanks to your

patience and thanks to everybody who sent in questions. And let's begin with a question on

Aaron Rogers. John, what do you think the odds are? Aaron Rogers wins the MVP this year. It's a really interesting question. I think there are a couple layers to that question. But before we get into what I think the odds are, let's go to the actual odds. And our friends at Fandual right now have Aaron Rogers tied with Jared Goff as the 11th most likely player to win MVP in 2024,

man. odds and our friends at fan duel right now have Aaron Rogers tied with Jared Gough as the 11th most likely player to win MVP in 2024 man imagine telling yourself three years ago that Aaron

Rogers and Jared Gough would begin a season with equal odds winning the MVP that three years ago

Rogers was coming off his fifth MVP golf was a guy the Rams couldn't get rid of fast enough

because they felt they needed to upgrade the quarterback position to win a Super Bowl and I guess they were kind of right but Gough was a guy in the Rams couldn't get rid of fast enough because they felt they needed to upgrade the quarterback position to win a Super Bowl. And I guess they were kind of right, but Gough has had a little renaissance in Detroit. So, you know, that tells you as much about Gough as it does about Rogers, the way he's kind of reinvented his career in Detroit. So Rogers, you know, decent odds, 11th, most likely player in the league. And I think we need to acknowledge MVP is really a quarterback award at this point. You know, it's used to be kind of a quarterback running back award. Maybe another sort of player could sneak into the mix. It's almost a guarantee that a quarterback is going to win the MVP this year. And I think there are two things that dictate MVP votes more than anything else.

One is statistics. And the other is storyline. And the media, you notice it through the year,

the media likes to really drive certain storylines. And it's like all the national reporters

kind of cling on to a narrative. So I think there is a path for Aaron Rogers to win the MVP.

I don't think Rogers is necessarily going to play at an MVP level, though. So what do I mean by that? Look, he's 40. He's coming off a serious injury. You know, physically he's not going to be what he used to be. He's not going to be able to make as many plays outside the pocket as he used to. but the Jets have the pieces around him that he can still be successful.

It can still have an excellent statistical season because on paper this offensive line looks really good. And it looks like the Jets have some good

pieces of the skill positions. So I think Rogers can have a good statistical season. And this is one of my

broader complaints about the national media is that they tend to like put quarterback's the most important position on the field, but they tend to forget there are other, there are 10 other guys on offense. And, you know, you see this every year where some guy gets praised as the next great quarterback and then the pieces around him aren't as the next year, and he falls apart and everybody acts like he's the worst quarterback in the world.

I mean, Baker Mayfield is a good example of this.

I mean, look at the roller coaster of a career Baker Mayfield's had.

And almost every step of the way, when he's been in a good situation, when he's had good coaching, when he's had good pieces around him, he's been a successful quarterback.

And when he's had bad situation around him, he's been a bad quarterback. And through Baker Mayfield's career, you know, you've either heard him be praised as the next great quarterback. You've heard him criticize as the worst quarterback in the world. Jalen Hertz is another example. You know, two years ago when the Eagles had all those great pieces around him, Jalen Hertz was, you know, a phenomenal quarterback. Then last year, there was some struggles. Now, Jalen Hertz all of a sudden isn't that good. Rogers in his prime was one of the few quarterbacks who could lift up a team no matter who was around him. I don't think Rogers is quite that anymore. Now, I think Rogers is still going to be a well above average quarterback. And I think that's going to be a huge upgrade for the Jets. And I think with the pieces around him, he's still going to be very successful. I think he can, I think he can put up MVP caliber stats. But I think part of that's going to be, you're going to have other guys doing more of the lifting than you've seen with Rogers in the past. In the past, Rogers just did it all himself. This year, Rogers will do a lot of it himself, but it'll also have some help from the offensive line and it'll have some help from receivers. So that's, that's one aspect of it. I think the statistics are going to be there. The other aspect of, you know, media narrative. And this narrative writes itself, Rogers coming back from the injury, Jets haven't made the playoffs in 13 years. Suddenly the Jets are good. It's all Rogers. So there's a path, there's a real pathway for Aaron Rogers to win the MVP this year because, you know, the two components that you need both have a chance of happening. And if the Jets win games, like he'll get credit, he'll deserve credit. I'm not saying he won't deserve any credit but what i'm saying

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