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Odd Lots

A Volatility Arbitrage Trader On What Markets Are Saying Right Now

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

Business, News, News Commentary, Investing, Business News

4.52K Ratings

🗓️ 19 October 2020

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

It's been an extraordinary year for traders of volatility. We had the crisis, we had this incredible surge in retail call options buying, and we have the election coming up. On this episode, we speak with Kris Sidial, a co-founder and vice president at The Ambrus Group, to discuss volatility arbitrage trading in this extraordinary environment.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

When you get your news from Bloomberg, you don't just get the story. You get the story behind the story.

0:07.0

How your Evie's battery may not be as green as it seems.

0:11.0

Why a decrease in global birth rates could send countries scrambling to increase immigration.

0:16.2

You get context.

0:17.6

And context changes how you see things, how you change things, because context changes everything. Go to

0:24.2

Bloomberg.com to get context. Hello and welcome to another episodeiesenthalz podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway.

0:46.0

And I'm Joe Wisenthall.

0:48.0

Joe. Yes. Did you know?

0:51.0

Did you know?

0:52.0

Did you know that the Vix futures... This is super dramatic. It's not that interesting.

0:57.8

Did you know that the Vix futures curve has been inverted or kind of inverted for I think like six months now

1:07.4

basically since February. I didn't realize it was then but I didn't realize

1:12.4

it had been six months so basically that means that

1:15.4

investors are hedging against higher volatility

1:25.0

protection in the future than they are right now or the other way around. The other way around.

1:26.0

So it means people are paying more for volatility protection

1:30.0

in the near term than they are in the future,

1:32.0

but that's unusual or at least it's counter to how the Vix curve normally looks.

1:38.0

Normally the Vix curve is upward sloping because there's more uncertainty further out into the future and so you pay more for that volatility insurance.

1:47.6

So it's kind of unusual to have the Vicks curve downward sloping for this long and I guess it's one of those things that that tells you that

1:56.1

we're in an interesting place when it comes to markets at the moment.

2:00.4

Yeah, I mean it makes sense that people are paying up more for short-term hedging right now because we obviously are just in extraordinary times.

...

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