All right, all right. The chat, the chat is packed tonight. You see this mic? I don't. You see the, you don't see the comments live. You've got my full attention. All right, I like that Dave Aries here, Roger Weatherford, Kelly SF.

The call is in the chat. Sean's here. Missy is here. Chris Hayes, Jack Rosenfield, all the, all the regular is Cliff. We see you. Thank you for coming.

John Carlo is here. Looks like he skipped dinner to be with us tonight live, which is very cool. Hey guys, thanks so much for being with us all year tonight. We have a very special treat before we can bring that treat to you.

We're going to do a quick sponsor thing. Michael, who is sponsoring the show this evening?

Well, thank you for, thank you, Santa. The sponsor for tonight's show is a company called Cranches. You know who they are. We've spoken about them a bunch.

If you want to learn more about their products and the rest of investing those products, of course, go to Cranches with the K dot com. But I also want to point out they do this thing.

Our friend, Brendan, I heard does this thing called China last night. If you want to read about China, what happened overnight? It's China last night. I got to be honest. I read it every morning.

Super informative. Okay. That was a lie. That was a lie. I don't read it every morning. However, any time that there is news and I'm like, what happened? Then I do read it.

So China, did you read about what Japan did overnight at China last night? That would be a violation of my rules. Oh, I just heard that they wrote about Japan, but I didn't. I stick to China. China last night dot com for Brendan. I heard stuff. Let's bring him in. Let's bring him in.

So Josh. Hey, Tom, come on. Come on on the show. Duncan's going to send you in. Look, look who's here. Everybody fan favorite. Tom Lee.

Yeah. Tom was so excited to have you. We went through your whole presentation for 2023 yesterday. And we pulled out what we thought were the most provocative or interesting charts. And you have a really interesting outlook for this coming year.

And we have huge fans of yours on the compound. Every time you come on, there's huge feedback. So we really appreciate you doing this. Thank you so much for spending some time with us tonight.

Yeah, glad to be here. Thanks. I enjoyed this show's format. And so glad to do it.

Thank you. Thank you very much. Where should we begin?

Well, this, this, the whole presentation was a banger, as it could say. Josh, where do we want to start? Well, I guess let's start with consensus because in your presentation to clients, Tom, one of the things you said really resonated with me.

You said, what you have to keep in mind is an equity investor. Consensus thinking isn't necessarily wrong. Consensus thinking is just what's already priced into the markets.

And you try to think what you're saying is that thinking more about what might change is more important than thinking about today's headlines, which everyone is very aware of. And let's throw this up.

We have the, let's say, now, yeah, yeah, this is the consensus now. You have short SPX is one of the most popular trades according to Goldman Sachs. That's put, it's got to be pretty rare.

But wait, Josh, they asked which US trade do you think offers the best risk reward for the first half of the year? And it's 19% of respondents that short the S&P 500 Tom, what does that mean?

I mean, it means a couple of things. I mean, one is obviously, I think there is some recency bias because you know, this year has been incredibly painful and challenging and tough.

So I think that there is a lot of emboldened investors thinking that we get more the same next year.

But at the same time, as you know, when something is so popular, like, you know, and really a popular consensus like short the S&P, I do think that we have to think in Josh, you said it about what could surprise consensus.

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