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Cato Podcast

A Tale of Two Surges

Cato Podcast

Cato Institute

Immigration, News, News Commentary, Peace, 424708, Markets, Government, Libertarian, Policy, Politics, Cato, Defense

4.5979 Ratings

🗓️ 10 April 2009

⏱️ 11 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Friday, April 10th, 2009.

0:07.0

I'm Caleb Brown.

0:08.0

Adapting a surge strategy from Iraq to Afghanistan requires adapting to a dramatically different physical terrain, a much weaker

0:15.8

central government, largely imaginary border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and a NATO

0:21.5

alliance that is hanging by a threat.

0:24.0

Other than that, says Cato Institute Legal Policy analyst and former Special Forces officer

0:29.2

David Ritgers, it's a fair comparison.

0:31.8

Well, they're very dissimilar in terms of the factors that made the surge a success in Iraq.

0:39.0

Economically, the Sunni areas are resource poor. There is oil north in the Kurdish areas and there's oil south in the Shiite areas, but there's no oil in the Sunni areas.

0:50.0

So you can rent loyalty very cheaply in the Sunni areas.

0:54.6

In Afghanistan, the reverse is true.

0:56.9

The areas just around Kandahar and the Helmon and Orrskine provinces, which is where a lot of the Taliban heartland is, are also the areas where

1:07.8

opium poppy grows and very successfully.

1:11.7

So that's actually a resource-rich area. So renting loyalty and porting the

1:15.9

third strategy with sons of Afghanistan parallel to sons of Iraq

1:20.9

is very, it's a very stretching the economics of that to the breaking point.

1:27.0

Second, let's take a look at how the terrain is in Iraq versus Afghanistan and where the population is in that terrain.

1:36.0

In Iraq there's two major rivers, the Tigers and the Euphrates and the population is concentrated around those two rivers.

1:44.0

So you can mass your forces

1:48.0

and achieve a localized ratio of counterinsurgents to population that is successful.

1:55.0

And in Baghdad we had dozens of combat outposts that were within

2:00.0

small arms range of each other and could mutually reinforce one another.

...

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