Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

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What's going on, guys? It is Friday, December 4th, and today we are talking about whether

there will be a Santa Claus rally for the stock market. First up, however, let's do the brief.

First up on the brief today, the new payrolls report for November is out, and once again,

we have undermet expectations.

Bloomberg's piece says U.S. hiring rebound markedly slows amid surge in virus cases.

So non-farm payrolls increased by about $245,000 this month. Estimates had been for a gain of

$460,000. The unemployment rate dipped 0.2% to 6.7% and we saw most disturbingly a significant

decline of Americans actually participating in the labor force. So basically this is just

a group of people who have now taken themselves out of the job labor force. So basically this is just a group of people who have

now taken themselves out of the job search altogether. So how are markets responding? Well,

interestingly, the treasury yield is up. That means less demand for treasuries. That usually means

a sense that things are getting better. But it's complicated. Gila Bace, who is

Janie's chief fixed income strategist, says, non-farm payrolls this morning, we've got a classic

problem. A strong report is a sign of stable economic growth despite headwinds. A weak report

could be the catalyst needed for compromise over stimulus. It's the muddy middle that gets complicated. He then followed up once

the report was out. Post-non-farm payroll curve steepening is a clear bet on fiscal deal moving

closer. In other words, he's saying that the treasury yield curve going up is a signal that

people think that this means that stimulus is on the way. This was echoed

...