Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action news and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Tuesday, November 7th, and I'm your host, Kim Kong. Our top story so far.

The probability of a U.S. recession hit its highest levels according to one metric that captures what banks are telling us.

The October Senior Loan Officer

Opinion Survey on bank lending practices, or sluice, showed that lending standards

have tightened across the board. They are now at levels that indicate a recession is imminent or already happening, according to Deutsche Bank.

When the percent of banks tightening standards on small firm C&I loans nears 30%, the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 0 to 12 months jumps to almost 90%.

Steve Caprio, head of the EU and U.S. Credit Strategy team, says it still feels like we're in a race against time.

Can lending standards improve quick enough before funding becomes too

restrictive or unavailable for important borrowers and tips the economy

into a much more difficult situation?

If that happens, the non-linearities could easily kick in.

The U.S. recession probabilities would dwindle if the sluice improved much more in future quarters.

You can find a great chart on the correlation between sluice and recession in our story.

Find the link in show notes and more on recession projections for my analysts

if you sign up at seeking alpha.com slash subscriptions.

In today's trading, the stock market was looking to add to what Barclays called the sharpest

global rally and risk assets in 10 years outside of the Pfizer vaccine news

rally.

The NASDAQ leads the major averages up nearly 1%.

It's on course for an eighth straight session in the green.

A streak like that hasn't happened since November 2021.

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