A Polling Surprise Feat. Nate Silver
What A Day
What A Day
4.6 • 12.6K Ratings
🗓️ 4 November 2024
⏱️ 25 minutes
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Summary
Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.
Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted’ movement,’ talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.
Show Notes:
- Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UX
- Check out Nate Silver's polling – https://www.natesilver.net/
- Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8
- What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast
- Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/
- For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | It's Monday, November 4th. I'm Jane Koston, and this is Wadda. The show that is celebrating |
| 0:06.3 | my dad's 70th birthday. I know. There's a lot going on in the world. But my dad is the coolest guy I know, |
| 0:14.0 | with a record collection that fills entire closets, and more World War II knowledge than anyone |
| 0:18.2 | probably needs, and hundreds of Formula One races on VHS. |
| 0:21.8 | Yes, still VHS. |
| 0:24.0 | So happy birthday to Byron Koston. |
| 0:26.3 | I, for one, am very proud to be his kid. |
| 0:30.8 | On today's show, we talk about the latest polling with Nate Silver, |
| 0:34.4 | plus what the uncommitted movement is telling its supporters days before the |
| 0:37.5 | election. Let's get into it. Election Day is tomorrow. Tomorrow. More than 75 million people have |
| 0:46.5 | already voted, and a slew of new polls released over the weekend showed some good news for |
| 0:50.6 | Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign. The big one was in Iowa. A poll from the |
| 0:55.0 | Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Seltzer showed Harris up three points over former President |
| 0:59.3 | Donald Trump. It's definitely an outlier. Most predict Trump will handle a win the state for |
| 1:04.1 | the third straight election cycle. But Seltzer has some serious polling street cred. And yes, |
| 1:09.9 | that's a thing. For one, she was one of the few pollsters who showed a much narrower victory for Joe Biden in 2020, when most polls showed him winning comfortably. The New York Times and Santa College also released their final round of state polling, showing Harris ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and tied with Trump in Michigan and |
| 1:29.0 | Pennsylvania. Trump led in Arizona. Polls are not predictions. Either candidate could win. This race is mind-bendingly |
| 1:37.1 | close. But you know who should listen to that advice? Donald Trump, because at a rally in Pennsylvania on |
| 1:42.4 | Sunday, he went on an extended rant about the |
| 1:44.5 | Seltzer poll, the media, and how it's all proof to him that the election will be rigged against |
| 1:49.0 | him. |
| 1:49.4 | The polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there. |
... |
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