A Nothingburger Speech that Moved Markets

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 26 August 2025

⏱️ 14 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

At last week’s Jackson Hole gathering, Jerome Powell delivered his final speech as Fed Chair. On the surface it was dry and technical, but markets read it as a dovish signal—and risk assets surged. In today’s Breakdown, NLW digs into what Powell actually said, why markets reacted so strongly, and what the revisions to the Fed’s monetary policy framework mean for inflation, employment, and the future of central bank independence. Brought to you by: Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.3	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:18.3	What's going on, guys? It is Monday, August 25th, and today we are talking about everything
0:23.3	that happened at last week's Jackson Hole meeting. Before we get into that, however, if you
0:27.9	are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you
0:31.7	want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the breakers discord. You can find a link in the show
0:35.7	notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. All right, friends, well, we had, as you guys know, on Friday, Jerome Powell giving
0:43.9	his very final address from Jackson Hole. All week, markets had been trying to guess what he would do.
0:50.0	Would he tamped down expectations of a September rate cut by pointing to rising inflation?
0:54.3	Or would he give the all-clear given recent downward revisions to labor market data?
0:58.4	Would this be a valedictory speech, with Powell taking the high road and waxing poetic about the importance of central bank independence?
1:04.3	Or would the chairman use his final annual address to do something very out of character for him and take a big direct pot shot at the president.
1:11.7	If you listen to the coverage here ahead of the speech, you'll know that I wasn't really
1:14.9	expecting fireworks like many pundits were anticipating. Powell's entire tenure has been characterized
1:19.9	by his conservative nature, and it would have been very surprising for him to deliver a
1:23.8	final flashy speech. Jackson Hole is typically used to mark turning points in monetary policy
1:28.4	and chart a new course for the coming year. But with Powell said to be replaced in May, it wasn't
1:32.8	clear how much he would want to stamp his imprint on future policy. Still, even with that prediction,
1:37.6	it was surprising even to me just how bland the speech was. Powell didn't give us any flourish or
1:43.3	key phrase. Instead, the speech was
1:45.2	workmanlike. And frankly, Powell's persistent cough made it seem like he was struggling just to get
1:49.5	through it. The speech was delivered in two halves. First, Powell discussed the current macro
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