A New Yield Regime: Commodity-Led Rally in the Making (w/ Tony Greer )

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 3 March 2021

⏱️ 37 minutes

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Summary

DB-Mar02,2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro where he declares that the five sigma sell-off in Treasuries last week marks the beginning of a new yield regime that will support a resources-led rally in earnest. Greer points to the dramatic move in rates being a response to visible commodity inflation, which is indicative of its strength. Because Greer sees a resources-led rally emerging, he explains why this is bad news for the tech sector over the next few months. After walking through the signals that are telling Greer that “this time is different,” he discusses how he’s positioning himself and what he’s eyeing in light of these changing market dynamics that continue to escalate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:58.1	What is going on right now?
1:00.1	I'm going to say the last week in February into this weekend was about the busiest I've been here at TG macro.
1:09.8	It's all been about being in touch with my clients and being in the mix on what is going on with the rail rise, right?
1:16.6	Ash, like last in the month of February, if we want to look at the month that we just ended up,
1:21.8	yields went from 106 in the 10 year, let's call it 10 year treasury,
1:26.4	to 1.41% that was via tapping a high of 1.6% on February 25th a day that I think will live in bond market infamy going forward.
1:39.0	That was the day we saw that five sigma treasury sell off into the second to last day of the month that to me was the exclamation point on the move that saying that yields are stepping up to it next into their next yield regime.
1:54.5	I feel like we're going to see yet 10 year yield in a 1.5% 2% range and you know, there is an entire set of collateral moves that we've got to follow in the markets now.
2:05.8	Yeah, so I guess where we started.
2:08.5	Yeah, exactly right. I guess this is the $64 billion question.
2:12.0	What's driving these moves in rates?
	...

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