A Keynesian Beauty Contest – But With No Beauty: DB- Dec4, 2020
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Real Vision
4.1 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 4 December 2020
⏱️ 42 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Real Vision. |
| 0:13.0 | It's Wednesday, December 4th, 2020, just after market close in New York. |
| 0:18.0 | This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing. |
| 0:20.0 | I'm Ash Bennington, joined shortly by Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison. But first with |
| 0:26.6 | the day's stories, Jack Farley. Thanks, Ash. Blessed if it does, blessed if it doesn't. That seems to be the destiny of the U.S. equity market. |
| 0:36.8 | Let me explain. The non-farm payrolls data came in today. |
| 0:41.2 | The U.S. added 245,000 jobs and that sounds good, but it's the |
| 0:46.2 | smallest monthly growth we've seen since March by far, the smallest since January |
| 0:51.0 | actually and is also well below the median estimate of |
| 0:54.8 | four hundred and sixty thousand in fact of the 78 economists surveyed in the |
| 0:59.7 | Bloomberg median estimate I just mentioned only six of them had forecasts that were below the actual number of 245,000. |
| 1:07.0 | The labor force participation rate dipped from 61.7% to 61.5%. |
| 1:12.0 | And that means that 656,000 Americans in aggregate exited the labor market over the last month. |
| 1:19.0 | This means that the ominous square root figure of the labor market that many have been talking about |
| 1:24.2 | including Ed is continuing to take shape. Lastly it remains the fact that every |
| 1:29.8 | single industry and I mean every single industry in the U.S. employs fewer workers than it did one year ago. |
| 1:37.0 | The data released today suggests that the damage to the U.S. labor market will endure, and that the economic scarring will last long after |
| 1:45.9 | this horrible virus has been overcome. |
| 1:49.2 | And what did the equity market do on this bad news? |
| 1:51.6 | Well if you thought that it would plummet you were wrong |
| 1:53.8 | because US equities were actually up today with all three indices making minor |
| 1:58.1 | advances. The bond market concurred with Treasury selling off as investors exited safe assets in order to jump |
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