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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

A Keynesian Beauty Contest – But With No Beauty: DB- Dec4, 2020

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 4 December 2020

⏱️ 42 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington (“Cash Pennington”) hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s dismal data on the state of the U.S. labor market. Ed and Ash put in context the non-farm payroll figures, released today, and contrast this dreadful print with the rally in U.S. equities. After reflecting on what these job numbers means for the yield curve and interest rate margins, Ed and Ash conduct an even-handed analysis of the worsening data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. In the intro, editor Jack Farley explores why the investors seem convinced that the adverse jobs data is actually good news for the stock market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Real Vision.

0:13.0

It's Wednesday, December 4th, 2020, just after market close in New York.

0:18.0

This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:20.0

I'm Ash Bennington, joined shortly by Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison. But first with

0:26.6

the day's stories, Jack Farley. Thanks, Ash. Blessed if it does, blessed if it doesn't. That seems to be the destiny of the U.S. equity market.

0:36.8

Let me explain. The non-farm payrolls data came in today.

0:41.2

The U.S. added 245,000 jobs and that sounds good, but it's the

0:46.2

smallest monthly growth we've seen since March by far, the smallest since January

0:51.0

actually and is also well below the median estimate of

0:54.8

four hundred and sixty thousand in fact of the 78 economists surveyed in the

0:59.7

Bloomberg median estimate I just mentioned only six of them had forecasts that were below the actual number of 245,000.

1:07.0

The labor force participation rate dipped from 61.7% to 61.5%.

1:12.0

And that means that 656,000 Americans in aggregate exited the labor market over the last month.

1:19.0

This means that the ominous square root figure of the labor market that many have been talking about

1:24.2

including Ed is continuing to take shape. Lastly it remains the fact that every

1:29.8

single industry and I mean every single industry in the U.S. employs fewer workers than it did one year ago.

1:37.0

The data released today suggests that the damage to the U.S. labor market will endure, and that the economic scarring will last long after

1:45.9

this horrible virus has been overcome.

1:49.2

And what did the equity market do on this bad news?

1:51.6

Well if you thought that it would plummet you were wrong

1:53.8

because US equities were actually up today with all three indices making minor

1:58.1

advances. The bond market concurred with Treasury selling off as investors exited safe assets in order to jump

...

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