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Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football

A HUGE RB Pivot - The Data Show (What Are The Odds) | Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 831

Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football

Rich Dotson

Sports, Football, Fantasy Sports

4.62K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2026

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Google sheets for data: RBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1idJmPno8MCI-WUdCG0f5wXAwngaztZj7V0xTiNI1HJY/edit?usp=sharing QBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJyn6KrrOktHVAFI90buniA3G8iGmogqD9Fv6WFSwwI/edit?usp=sharing WRs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qwxHm7lMHQ7kZecVZUuWQd1AhaXoKzEUQaqYpQf2tfw/edit?usp=sharing TEs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FSwzXR62EG_CyBg77BaS8BV0iBLd7ZUoA7Ll8eqEtXE/edit?usp=sharing The Dynasty Nerds crew is back with their annual “repeat rate” deep dive, breaking down how often elite fantasy finishes actually repeat year to year and what that means for building dynasty rosters. Rich Dotson, Matt O'Hara, and Garret Price walk through the biggest shifts in the data, with the running back position showing the most meaningful change. Listen to This Episode: Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube The headline is the pivot at RB. Historically, most top 12 RB seasons were one and done, but now only 43.75% of RB1 seasons are single year hits, meaning 56% plus repeat. Even wilder, about 40.6% of RB1 seasons come from backs who eventually log three or more RB1 years. That shift strengthens the case for locking in young cornerstone backs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, who already have three RB1 seasons in three years, while Kyren Williams keeps beating the “other shoe” narrative by repeating without elite peak finishes. At QB, Josh Allen is in historic territory with seven top six seasons in eight years, and a massive top three hit rate. The show also notes how rare four top six seasons are, which keeps Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott in elite company even when real life value and fantasy value diverge. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 03:33 A Pivot in the RB Data 25:37 Top QB Hit Rates 38:25 FFPC 39:40 Top WR Hit Rates 48:40 Top TE Hit Rates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Ready, see!

0:01.5

Hot-Hud!

0:02.3

Welcome to the Dynasty Nerds Fantasy Football Podcast, where we discuss Dynasty Strategy,

0:09.0

rankings, and all things NFL.

0:11.7

So get ready to geek out on Fantasy Football with your host, Rich Dodson.

0:16.8

And welcome to the Dynasty Nerdscheat Fantasy Football Podcast.

0:23.5

I'm Rich Dotson.

0:24.5

He's Matt O'Hara.

0:25.5

Hey, hey.

0:25.9

He's Garrett Price.

0:26.8

How's it going?

0:27.4

And we are doing our annual.

0:29.5

What are the odds, the chances, the percentages, the data points that when a player

0:37.0

finishes number one, which is top 12 after position, the data points, that when a player finishes number one,

0:38.3

which is top 12 after position, any given year,

0:41.8

that they're going to be a redundant son of a B.

0:44.3

They're going to do it again.

0:45.3

They're going to be a repeat.

0:46.3

You like it so much, put it on repeat.

0:48.2

The single, let's say.

0:49.4

Another one.

0:50.5

Another one.

...

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