A Green Light for Fed Easing? ft. Warren Pies & Andreas Steno

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 24 July 2024

⏱️ 50 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/467wxee Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, welcomes Warren Pies, founder and lead strategist at 3Fourteen Research, to examine where we're at in terms of inflation, Fed policy, and broader macro implications. They also dig into the construction cycle, commodities markets, the U.S. Dollar, and risk assets. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana’s Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there – this is the one event you can’t miss this year. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Unlock the potential to showcase your brand to our global audience. Contact us at partnerships@realvision.com for advertising inquiries. Timestamps: (00:00) - Sponsor: Token2049 in Singapore. (01:03) - Introduction with Andreas Steno and Warren Pies. (01:37) - Discussion on the US economy and CPI report. (05:18) - Disinflationary tailwinds and shelter inflation. (10:11) - Goldman Sachs' prediction on rate cuts. (15:31) - Credit creation's role in bull markets. (17:11) - Sector rotation and Trump presidency impact. (17:50) - Political influence on market and tax policies. (18:49) - Spending and deficits impact on markets. (19:52) - Potential impacts of extending tax cuts. (20:28) - Construction cycle and employment trends. (21:36) - Multi-family and single-family housing trends. (22:07) - Housing employment model as economic indicator. (23:12) - Emerging slack in residential construction labor. (24:21) - Rate cuts' impact on real estate market. (25:22) - Controlled return of housing supply. (26:00) - Homebuilding stocks and inflation prints. (27:01) - Real estate market affordability and millennial demand. (27:41) - Divergence between gold and oil. (28:13) - Commodity super cycle thesis. (28:47) - Gold's role as a monetary commodity. (29:51) - Oil market dynamics and OPEC's influence. (30:56) - OPEC's actions and oil prices. (31:30) - Saudi Arabia's investment cuts and OPEC strategies. (32:35) - Long-term sustainability of OPEC's influence. (33:03) - Potential outcomes of a price war. (34:03) - Political influence on energy investments. (40:39) - Gold as a safe haven. (44:52) - Historical earnings growth in bull markets. (48:43) - Closing remarks and macro deep dive outlook. About Real Vision™: We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed in your financial journey. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Join over 20,000 attendees for the world's largest crypto event,
0:03.7	token 2049 Singapore on the 18th to the 19th of September.
0:08.3	The Lodge Shrino Vassen, Salanas Anatoly, Arthur Hayes,
0:12.0	and over 250 others or hit the stage as
0:15.4	token 2049 takes over the iconic Verena-based Sams in Singapore
0:20.7	with over 500-side events during token 2049 in Singapore or use our self-service or service armid use for super-passed
0:24.0	automated
0:28.0	otees in the law
0:29.0	as offered to US customers
0:31.0	capped off by after 2049.
0:33.2	The Formula One Grand Prix race weekend.
0:37.0	Everyone will be there.
0:38.4	This is the one event you can't miss this year.
0:40.8	Visit realvision.com token 2049 for 15% off tickets only with the code Real Vision.
0:48.1	Link in September. Welcome to this macro deep dive here at
1:05.2	Real Vision. My name is Andreiastino and I'll be your host for the next 45 to 60
1:09.4	minutes and I'm pleased to be joined by not only a friend of mine but also the founder of 314 research.
1:16.0	It's great to see you Warren.
1:18.0	Yeah, great to be here and always fun to talk.
1:21.2	Warren Pies, it's always a pleasure to host you and now also the portfolio manager of the
1:26.3	FCTE EDF congratulations on the launch of the EDF earlier this month for.
1:32.1	But thank you very much yeah it's been our first the launch of the ETSF earlier this month for.
	...

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