A Gambler’s Casino Rather Than a Speculator’s Market

Peter Navarro’s Taking Back Trump’s America

InTrumpTimePress

Government, News, News:politics, Politics, Business News

4.7 • 867 Ratings

🗓️ 8 December 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

READ THE TRANSCRIPT AT HTTP://PETERNAVARRO.SUBSTACK.COM Hi. Peter Navarro here with this week’s stock market wrap for the week ending December 8, 2023. The market remains a gambler’s roulette wheel rather than an intelligent speculator’s poker game. Bulls on the long side continue to bet on a soft landing propelled by a series of rate cuts by the Fed come the new year. They remain heartened by the continued, albeit slowing, move up of the markets – the S&P eked out a small gain for the week. Bears on the short side, like me I might add, see all manner of hazards that must inevitably, and sooner rather than later, catch up with Wall Street – persistently high inflation, equally persistent high interest rates that are slowly choking off interest rate sensitive sectors like autos and housing, a looming fiscal cliff, geopolitical hazards ranging from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf to the Straits of Taiwan, and so it goes. LISTEN FOR THE REST OF THE STORY. AND PLEASE WRITE A REVIEW AND SHARE WITH A FRIEND

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, Peter Navarro, with this week's podcast Sub-Stack Market Rap,
0:05.0	The Soft Landing Crowd versus the Stagflation Crowd.
0:10.0	The market was essentially flat to barely up for the week.
0:14.0	This suggests a stalemate now between those who believe in a soft landing
0:19.0	in which higher interest rates slowly tamped down inflation in growth until we hit some steady
0:25.8	state without recession versus those, an increasingly fewer number, who see inflation is more stubborn and a recession is far more likely.
0:37.0	The soft landing crowd has powered the recent rise in the S&P 500 over the last month.
0:44.0	The S&P bouncing off in October 27 low of 4,117
0:51.0	to around 4,600 today.
0:53.2	Following inflationary expectations have likewise sparked a robust bond market rally with
0:58.6	bond prices rising as inflation falls and yields dropping from around 5% to around 4.25% since October.
1:08.6	The stagflation crowd has for now closed its shorts and waits on the sidelines and what many in this crowd
1:14.4	believe is a 50-50 gamble up or down rather than an intelligent speculation
1:20.0	on a bare market. There's a teaching point.
1:23.0	Stock market investing, you always want to intelligently speculate just like a good poker player playing
1:28.9	the odds.
1:29.9	What you don't want to do is gamble, as in rou roulette where you have a 50-50 chance of winning on black or red where the green gives you a small edge to the casino.
1:42.0	I continue to believe cash parked in short-term instruments
1:45.6	yielding 4 to 5 percent is the prudent course. There are just too many headwinds
1:50.1	facing our economy, mostly driven by bidenomics. The bigger picture
1:56.0	reveals more of a trading range market than any Biden bull. Remember here that the Biden Bull peaked at 4,766 on the S&P 500 on December 27, 2021, and remains
2:11.8	well short of that level through its range-bound meandrians.
	...

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