A Final Touch on China
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 3 September 2021
⏱️ 38 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chinese perception of U.S. global economic intentions (primarily around our use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency to facilitate large twin deficits) is at the heart of Chinese beliefs and agendas with their own currency.
None of this has been for the purpose of mere armchair theorizing or navel-gazing. While high level takeaways in the discussion of China’s place on the global economic stage can be interesting and even provocative, our agenda is investment-specific. We may or may not have an investment thesis to act upon around Chinese financial markets. And we certainly believe the entire discussion is highly relevant for all investors in terms of how the geopolitical and monetary components play themselves out.
This week I bring in some reinforcements. Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, one of the foremost economists in the world when it comes to China, Hong Kong, the Pacific Rim, and global fiscal dynamics joins me for a podcast/video discussion on this entire subject. His own views help shine a light on what the fundamental question is we must answer. I will leave you in suspense as to what that is.
Once again, all free people can conclude different things about these subjects. But choosing to ignore the entire topic is not an option. History is being made right before our eyes, and our portfolios are asking us to understand it. To that end we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.6 | Well, this week I'm going to be doing something a little different here at Dividend Cafe, and some of you may really like it because you're not going to hear from me a bunch. |
| 0:19.8 | We're going to go right now to |
| 0:21.7 | my interview with Louis Gov, who is the chief economist, a GovCal Research, been based out of |
| 0:27.6 | Hong Kong for the better part of 20 years. He's a French-born economist with deep and multi-generational, |
| 0:36.3 | by the way, his father Charles is utterly brilliant economist. |
| 0:40.0 | But deep economic study in the European region and Asian region and has himself, I think, |
| 0:47.2 | become one of the foremost experts on economic growth cycles and what's taking place right now, |
| 0:52.6 | not just in China, but in the |
| 0:54.5 | greater Asian territory. And I've learned a great deal from him about particularly the subject |
| 1:01.7 | I've been writing about lately regarding China's sovereign debt market and their currency, |
| 1:07.7 | contra policies and trends in the United States. And I think you're going to enjoy this |
| 1:13.9 | conversation. So let's let me get right into my interview with Louie Gov and we'll take it from |
| 1:22.2 | there. So let's let's use this as a sort of breakpoint in our chat to transition from the equity side |
| 1:31.0 | to the debt and by implication the currency side. |
| 1:36.4 | Your father wrote an absolutely tremendous piece, kind of a two-parter, but the second |
| 1:42.4 | part of it, I think, really crystallized a lot of what's |
| 1:47.6 | going on right now in China's perception of what the U.S. is doing by nature of running a current |
| 1:56.3 | account deficit and having the world's reserve currency, the ability to cheat the system that way, |
| 2:04.8 | where the mutual and reciprocal benefits of that have now worn off, where we previously |
| 2:12.5 | needed to buy their stuff and they needed to sell us the stuff and we needed them to fund our deficits. |
| 2:19.3 | We now find ourselves in a different position where regardless of what one thinks about the |
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