Hey Peter Navarro here with the latest podcast and sub-stack here we go a dead cat bounce or yet another bullish reversal

Fascinating that was my word for the week in this economy and market wrap.

For the week ending November 3rd, 2023.

Indeed, for a market handicapper like me, this was one of the most interesting weeks in the

economy and stock market in recent memory. After about two painful months of a

downward trend that resulted in the S&P 500 plummeting below a key

support level of 4200. The market rebounded sharply for the week gaining nearly 5%. The question is whether this is a

so-called dead cat bounce of a market destined to fall back yet again and hard or whether we are in for yet another ride-up

a range-bound market ripe for short-term traders.

One possible answer lies in parsing some of the bullish factors

driving the upward move to see if they have any lasting power. The first thing

we can rule out is that stock market investors are betting on growth in the economy

to catalyze a related growth and earnings that would justify move up in stock prices.

Almost all signs point to slowing growth, certainly over the next several quarters,

perhaps for a year or more as interest rates remain high.

Here, the consensus about the Federal Reserve has subtly shifted from the view that with inflation persistent, rates will be higher for longer to the alternative view that with inflation moderating somewhat it will be inflation high for longer and

rates. In other words we can expect 5% short-term interest rates, mortgage rates, at least in the range of 8% or higher, and credit-card

debt rate well above 20% for the foreseeable future.

Together, these tight money boa constrictors will slowly squeeze the U.S. economy, as we are seeing them do now.

Once we rule out the higher growth, higher earnings theory of a bullish move this week, we are

are left with the alternative theories of,

number one, the zero-sum nature of capital

...