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Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball

A Closer Look at Chase Rate & 'The Perfect Hitter'

Rates & Barrels: A show about Baseball

The Athletic

Sports, Mlb, Fantasy Baseball, Baseball

4.7874 Ratings

🗓️ 16 August 2023

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Eno and DVR discuss broader aspects of O-Swing% (chase rate) and whether it's a skills flaw that can draw excessive negativity -- especially with younger players. Plus, they consider whether 'The Perfect Hitter' exists, and which current player has the best case for that title. 


Rundown

1:07 Do the Circumstances Matter Around Chasing

4:54 Salvador Perez & Aging Hitters

10:26 O-Swing% Leaders in 2023 (High%)

17:58 Amed Rosario

21:14 The Best $20+ Hitter Season We Haven't Talked About

26:00 Luis Robert Jr.: Elite Skills w/Chase Concerns?

31:29 Bryce Harper's Recent Increase in O-Swing%

37:46 The 2023 Version of Juan Soto

39:30 Does 'The Perfect Hitter' Exist, and Who Is That Player?

47:06 Where is Vlad Jr.'s Power?

52:45 Did 'Gather As You Go' Work for Steals?


Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris

Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper

e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com


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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Rates and barrels.

0:16.1

It is Wednesday, August 16th.

0:18.4

Derek and Riper here, it's Eno Saris.

0:19.8

On this episode, I go down the rabbit hole.

0:23.5

I started thinking more about O-Swing percentage and how I feel about hitters who swing

0:29.5

it pitches outside the zone.

0:31.3

And I started to think that maybe I grade those players too harshly.

0:35.3

The guys that chase, maybe I have too much of a dismissive attitude toward them being able

0:40.7

to have prolonged success.

0:42.5

And as a result, I don't have as many teams with Luis Robert or Randy a Rosarena on them.

0:48.4

Historically, you look at some of those players who pop up near the top of that board.

0:52.3

And those are guys that I steer away from. So we'll dig into why I may be a little too harsh on this group of players. Got a couple of questions that came in, and one about Elohimenez, one about Vlad Jr. So we'll try to get to those on this episode as well. But let's begin with the O swing percentage. We talk about this all the time. Sometimes we call it chase rate. Sometimes you call it reach rate, all the same thing, just the percentage of

1:14.9

pitches that hitters swing at. I've stopped calling a reach rate by the way, because that's confusing. It'll come back. I think it was like booge, Sambi was like, dude, what is reach rate? and I was like,

1:08.5

why is there confusion?

1:09.8

He's like,

1:10.2

is that like how often they get on bass?

1:11.8

And I was like,

1:12.3

oh,

1:12.6

that's not,

1:14.6

that's not. and I was like, why is there confusion? And he's like, is that like how often they get on base?

1:28.1

And I was like, oh, that's not what I'm talking about.

1:33.1

Thank you for that.

...

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