A.B. Stoddard on Biden, Trump, and the Parties: How Crazy Could It Get in 2023 and 2024?

Conversations with Bill Kristol

News, Society & Culture, Government, Politics

4.7 • 1.7K Ratings

🗓️ 27 July 2022

⏱️ 74 minutes

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Summary

Is Donald Trump still the center of gravity in the Republican Party? Will Joe Biden run for reelection? What might our politics look like in 2023 as the races for the 2024 presidential primaries kick into gear? To discuss these questions, we are joined by veteran reporter and commentator A.B. Stoddard. In Stoddard’s view, the most likely outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy soon—and Biden not seeking reelection. She forecasts a scenario in which Trump maintains his hold on the Republican Party by exerting pressure on loyalists in the House of Representatives, while trying to fend off challenges from potential rivals like Ron DeSantis. As for the Democrats, Stoddard argues that the party has not yet come to grips with the challenge of attracting swing voters nor fully grappled with the likelihood of Biden not running. Bottom line: more volatility ahead.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hi, I'm Bill Crystal. Welcome back to Conversations. I'm very pleased to be joined today by AB
0:19.7	Stoddard reporter. Once a reporter, now more of a columnist and an analyst, but an analyst
0:25.8	whose analysis is informed by reporting, which is not the case with every analyst in Washington,
0:31.0	so it's often well-informed analysis. ABs with real-clear politics used to be with the Hill,
0:38.1	ABC News, and a very valued contributor to the Bullwork as well. So AB, thanks for joining me.
0:43.4	Bill, thanks for having me. It's great to be with you. So we're going to discuss just to locate
0:48.2	people. This is the end of July, July 26, 2022, and we're going to discuss a couple of topics that AB
0:54.5	has been one of the shrewdest commentators on. One, Donald Trump and the Republican Party,
0:58.5	and the second, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, which is kind of most of American politics today,
1:03.2	I suppose. But I was looking back at a piece you wrote in December 2020. So after the election,
1:09.4	it would be pretty early December, I think December 7th for the Bullwork, where you said contrary
1:14.2	what the conventional wisdom at the time was, Mitch McConnell's wisdom, the Wall Street Journal,
1:18.2	editorial pages wisdom, that kind of turns out wishful thinking wisdom at the time. Donald Trump
1:23.6	was going to be remain central to the Republican Party, and for the next, for the foreseeable future.
1:28.9	And this is before January 6th and before all the evidence that accumulated that you were right,
1:33.5	I mean, you were always a shrewd observer. It seems to me of Trump. So talk a little bit about
1:38.4	him personally as a phenomenon politically, and then his relationship to the Republican Party.
1:43.5	Well, Bill, I mean, you and I both saw the same thing in 2015 and 2016,
1:50.8	and we of course were just given these bug eyes and slack jaws when we went on and on on Fox
2:02.3	panels or elsewhere about how he would never, ever respect the Constitution or the courts of
2:08.6	the Congress and that he would be dangerous. And so we saw all this, you don't have to wait
2:14.8	till the January 6th House Select Committee hearings to discover that he's dangerous.
	...

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