A 99% Win Probability and Nothing to Show For It
Packernet Podcast: Daily Green Bay Packers Podcast
AC Sports
4.7 • 524 Ratings
🗓️ 21 December 2025
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era.
Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball.
But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Ladies and gentlemen, welcome once again to the Packernet podcast. |
| 0:13.0 | I am your host and resident fanalyst as always Ryan Schlipp. |
| 0:16.5 | Check us out online Packernet.com. |
| 0:19.0 | Find me on Twitter pack underscore datab. |
| 0:22.8 | All right. Well, where to begin? |
| 0:29.1 | I was livid probably about 10 minutes ago. And when that touchdown pass happened, |
| 0:37.0 | not that I didn't know the bears were going to win, I mean, you could feel it a long time ago. And when that touchdown pass happened, not that I didn't know the bears were going to |
| 0:38.7 | win, I mean, you could feel it a long time ago. I don't really feel upset. And it's both for good |
| 0:48.9 | and bad reasons. Why don't we start with the good reasons? So the angry fans, negative fans, just |
| 0:55.6 | hold on. Your time is coming. Let's start with this. Plenty of reason to be upset, but I do think |
| 1:03.4 | that there are a lot of guys that deserve a lot of credit in this game. A lot. |
| 1:12.0 | The, |
| 1:16.8 | this was a freaking tough battle |
| 1:19.9 | with so many people out. |
| 1:24.1 | Let me give you one example, |
| 1:25.6 | Josh Jacobs. That guy was not healthy. |
| 1:29.6 | Emmanuel Wilson was the guy. |
| 1:31.1 | He had a great day running all that stuff. |
| 1:33.3 | But I want to specifically highlight Josh Jacobs because it highlights a team that is just not healthy. |
| 1:41.2 | And I'm going to try not to get over into the negative side here because I'm |
| 1:45.1 | dancing with it. But this team is beat up so bad. And they're out there fighting for their |
| 1:53.7 | dear life to just hang on. Guys like Josh Jacobs going out there, and I swear I saw him numerous |
... |
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