#996 - Stephen J. Shaw - Why Population Collapse is Closer Than You Think

Modern Wisdom

Chris Williamson

Society & Culture, Health & Fitness

4.7 • 4.6K Ratings

🗓️ 20 September 2025

⏱️ 173 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Stephen J. Shaw is a data scientist and filmmaker. Birth rates in Western countries are collapsing, a trend even Elon Musk calls an existential threat. But what’s the true cause? Is it economics, fear of the future, cultural shifts, or something deeper? And more importantly, can anything actually reverse the decline? Sponsors: See me on tour in America: ⁠https://chriswilliamson.live⁠ See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get 5 Free Travel Packs, Free Liquid Vitamin D, and more from AG1 at https://ag1.info/modernwisdom Get the brand new Whoop 5.0 and your first month for free at https://join.whoop.com/modernwisdom Get 10% discount on all Gymshark’s products at https://gym.sh/modernwisdom (use code MODERNWISDOM10) Timestamps: (0:00) Global Birth Rate Decline is Keeps Stephen Up at Night (6:47) Why We Should Care About Birth Rates Why are Falling Birth Rates So Concerning? (18:29) What Will the Population Look Like in 50 Years? What Stephen Thinks the Population Will Looks Like in 50 Years (30:07) Why It’s Now Harder to Become a Parent (35:25) Why Women Over 30 are Less Likely to Become a Mother (44:55) What Factors are Causing Drops in Birth Rate? (59:50) Stephen Thoughts on Involuntary Childlessness (01:15:14) The Clash Between Those Who Want Children and Those Who Don’t (01:22:58) Are Antinatalists Evil? (01:30:02) What are the Macro Impacts on Birth Rate Decline? (01:46:59) Does Stephen Think Discussing Birth Rates is Right Wing Coded? (01:59:47) Stephen’s View on the Societal Half-Life (02:04:15) Would IVF or Adoption Stop Declining Birth Rates? (02:18:31) What Interventions Don’t Work? (02:24:44) Young People Want to Put Themselves First (02:41:56) How We Can Learn Start Boosting Birth Rates (02:49:27) Find Out More About Stephen Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Nearly three years ago since we last spoke, I want to start afresh. What is the big question
0:09.2	that you're tackling? The reason for global birth rate decline. It's what's kept me awake
0:16.6	for nine years and continues to do so. The difference now is I feel I know the answer. It's the
0:25.1	answer that keeps me awake. And, you know, that's why I came to Austin after, yeah, nearly three
0:31.2	years to share what it is that the data is revealing. And frankly, I feel a sense of responsibility. I feel a sense of
0:41.4	awareness of what has to happen to societies for us to have a chance of combating this. And just a
0:52.2	reminder, if I can, Chris, no nation history has been known to recover from long-term low birth rates.
1:00.3	We don't have an example.
1:02.5	So sometimes it's felt about these years, whilst, I mean, can I just say when we last
1:09.5	talked, almost no one was talking about low birth rates.
1:14.0	And I think, frankly, the conversations we had then were part of a catalyst. In fact, I know they were because people tell me that.
1:20.6	That was basically the launch of birth gap, right? The first documentary you did was I was pretty much the first pod that you'd done.
1:26.6	My gosh, at that time,
1:28.7	you embarrassed me in your introduction. You mentioned that I had only 5,000 views. I thought,
1:35.0	this is going to go badly, you know, obviously, you know, it got up to close to a million. I think
1:41.1	I had 13 followers on X at the time. So really it was a different world for me then.
1:46.1	But more to the point, if you take the one-liner from that podcast,
1:52.7	I think is quoted more often than anything else.
1:55.5	We covered a lot.
1:57.0	But now this is important.
1:59.0	At most, people forget that. At most, a woman turning 30 without a child has a 50, 50% chance of ever becoming a mother. And, you know, my gosh, I know that's hit a lot of people. Young people, especially young women who are frankly shocked that by age 30, but it's at the most 30.
2:20.8	I'll come back to that a little bit later if I can.
	...

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