This is the late round podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharre

reason.

What's up everyone, it's J.J. Zachary, and in this episode 881 of the late

round fantasy football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy, thanks for tuning in.

I don't draft off of projections. People sometimes give me a weird look when I say that,

but I don't think you should take one singular median outcome for a player, which is what a projection is,

and use that as the only data point when you're drafting.

There's variance to projections.

That's one reason why.

You may hate that I talk about variance so much on the show, but it's true.

We can say that a certain backup running back will only score 75 p.P.P.R. points this year.

But if that backup starter gets hurt in week one, then that projection becomes meaningless.

It's not to say that that's a common occurrence.

It's to say that we know projections can go south, and they can go south in a hurry. Now to that point projections don't

always properly capture range of outcomes. A rookie or a second year player

probably gonna have a wider range of outcomes than a player who's been in the same

offense with the same team for years. There's more ambiguity with that younger player.

Sometimes that's good, Most that's bad.

But projections will show you just one final number for both a veteran and the younger player, that fantasy point total.

Most systems aren't giving you a range of outcomes.

And even if they are giving you a range of outcomes, there's still a lot of variance to that too.

And let's be honest, there are points in your fantasy draft where you shift your focus when it comes to range of outcomes.

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