This is the late round podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharre

Riesa.

What's up everyone? It's J.J. Zacharyson in this episode 866 of the

late round fantasy football podcast. Thanks for tuning in.

As I said last week, my prospect model's got a little makeover this off season.

A lot of the same metrics are still used in them, but there are some changes too,

and I'd argue that there were more changes done to the wide receiver model than the running back one.

The wide receiver model, which has been named the ZAP model, like I said last week, but the

wide receiver ZAP model has a handful of different factors that go into it. The goal of the model is to predict

fantasy output for an incoming rookie across his first three years in the NFL. There are

a handful of inputs within that model, but three of those inputs are production-related.

One of them has been a staple of the model, and that's collegiate yards per team pass attempt.

It takes the player's receiving yards, and it divides that by his team's total pass attempts.

Now historically the model had just looked at a player's top season in yards

per team pass attempt. The metric breakout age that used to be an input in the model so age adjustments were happening elsewhere.

All that mattered though was the best season in yards per team pass attempt.

The ZAP model is a little bit different.

Rather than taking that singular number, it creates a breakout score that's based on yards per team pass attempt.

This is similar to what I talked about last week with breakout score running back.

Essentially, breakout score is my way of showing age

adjusted production. Rather than using something like Breakout Age, which is pretty binary and works

off of Dominator rating a metric I don't really love in the first place.

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