7 Best NBA Picks You Must Take on Tuesday (January 31st)
The Fantasy Football Club with Sal Vetri
Sal Vetri
5.0 • 784 Ratings
🗓️ 31 January 2023
⏱️ 7 minutes
🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
7 Best NBA Picks You Must Take on Tuesday (January 31st)
Instant Free Bet Up to $100:
https://bit.ly/3wKlKFO
The Ultimate Player Props Tool:
https://www.patreon.com/join/2497675
Free Betting Picks Newsletter:
https://sal-members.beehiiv.com/subscribe
-----
LaMelo Ball’s prop is 5.5 Rebounds.
He’s over this in 2 straight…
And now he takes on the Bucks who allow the 5th most rebounds to guards.
In similar matchups LaMelo averages 6.5 rebounds…
Now there is 1 major concern…
The Hornets are 12-point underdogs today.
The chance for potential blowout is high.
But believe it or not…
LaMelo actually averages 36 minutes in blowouts…
Leading to over 6 rebounds per game…
-
Now on the opposite side of this LaMelo game is Giannis.
His prop 13.5 Rebounds.
Everything about his matchup is great.
He gets the Hornets who allow the 2nd most rebounds to centers…
And 4th most to big men overall.
In similar matchups Giannis averages 14 rebounds.
However: As discussed earlier, this game as a 12-point spread.
In potential blowouts Gianni plays 17% less minutes…
He goes from playing 36 to just 30 (like last game)…
And in these contests, he averages just 12 rebounds…
-
CJ McCollum prop is 3.5 Rebounds.
He’s over this in 2 straight…
And Zion Williamson remains out today.
With Zion out, McCollum has gone over this number in 8 of 12 games…
And today his opponent, The Nuggets, have a 121 point-team total.
It’s the highest of any team today.
This implies more shot attempts & more shots leads to more rebound chances…
-
Kawhi Leonard’s prop is 26.5 Points.
He’s over this in 2 straight games.
But but but & this is a big ole booty!
He’s shot 66% during this time…
Which is 10% higher than his season average & just not sustainable.
He now the Bulls who have had the #1 defense the past 4 weeks.
They allow the 10th fewest points per possession this year.
In similar matchups Kawhi averages just 24.3 points…
-
DeMar DeRozan OVER 4.5 Rebounds
IDK If you know this but he’s been under this in B2B games.
However: His rebound chances are quietly up 14% in these games.
What’s this mean? Well, he’s been getting extremely unlucky.
He’s seen 8 rebound chances per game the last 3 games.
When DeRozan sees 8 rebound chances, he averages 5.2 rebounds.
He now faces LAC who has ranked 26th in defense the past 2 weeks…
-
Nikola Jokic prop is 10.5 Assists.
He’s under this in 2 straight…
And the Nuggets are 8-point favorites today.
In potential blowouts Jokic plays 13% less minutes…
He goes from averaging 36 minutes to just 31…
Leading to just 9.5 total assists…
And he faces the Pelicans who allow the 8th fewest assists to bigs.
In similar matchup, Jokic averages just 9.7 assists
And for what it’s worth he took on New Orleans 7 days ago and had 10 assists while playing 36 minutes…
-
Nikola Vucevic prop is 11.5 Rebounds.
Over the past 10 games he’s playing 13% closer to the basket.
His average rebound distance has gone from 4.7 to 4.1 over this time.
It may not seem like a lot, but it actually is…
This has led to an elite 20.8 rebound chances per game.
10 more than any other player on the Bulls…
And is 2nd in the entire league behind only Sabonis.
He now gets this #26 ranked Celtics defense the past 2 weeks.
And in similar matchups he averages over 12 rebounds…
Plus when he earns 20 potential rebounds, he averages 12.5 rebounds…
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | All right, so I've analyzed over 100 bets today. And these are the seven that have the best |
| 0:04.2 | chance to hit. Starting with Lamello Ball, whose rebounding prop is five and a half today. And I don't |
| 0:08.9 | know if you know this, but over his last few games, he's actually been over this number in two |
| 0:13.7 | straight, seven rebounds and 11. And now Lamello is going to be taking on the Milwaukee Bucks today. |
| 0:17.9 | They give up six and a half rebounds per 36 minutes to |
| 0:21.0 | guards, which is the fourth most in the NBA. And in similar matchups against teams that give up |
| 0:25.7 | a lot of rebounds to guards, Lamello is averaging six and a half rebounds, which of course is over |
| 0:29.6 | his prop. So are we taking it? Well, there is one major concern. Today's spread between Milwaukee |
| 0:34.6 | and Charlotte is 11.5 points. And in some spots, it's 12 points. |
| 0:38.0 | It's the biggest, it's the widest on the slate, which means there's a potential blowout risk here. |
| 0:42.7 | And of course, potential blowouts mean this guy might not get to his prop before getting taken out and playing less minutes. |
| 0:47.8 | But after diving into my database, believe it or not, Lamello averages 36 minutes in potential blowouts and over six rebounds. |
| 0:54.4 | So being armed with this knowledge, we start by taking the over five and a half on Lamello ball. |
| 0:58.9 | Now, in the exact same game on the opposite side is Yannis. |
| 1:01.6 | And his prop today, it's set at 13 and a half rebounds and everything about his matchup is great. |
| 1:05.9 | He'll be taking on Lamello's Hornet to allow the second most rebounds to centers, the the fourth most to power forwards and overall the second most to big men and in similar matchups yannis averages over 14 rebounds per |
| 1:16.7 | game however there's a big issue that we discussed earlier this game is basically a 12 point spread |
| 1:21.9 | and in potential blowouts like today is setting up to be yannis plays plays 13% less minutes. He goes from playing 36 minutes |
| 1:29.0 | per game to 30. And you can see this in the last game. The last game was a 25 point blowout. |
| 1:32.8 | He only placed 30 minutes. He gets 13 rebounds. That's a lot of rebounds, but it's still under today's |
| 1:36.7 | number. You can go back a couple of games against Detroit. He only plays 27 minutes in a blowout, he only gets 12 rebounds. When there are these blowout situations, |
| 1:44.8 | he sees that less time and he only averages 12 rebounds per game. So now that we know all of that, |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Sal Vetri, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Sal Vetri and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.