Welcome to the show everybody.

Maga World is in panic because of the following word ceiling. It appears that Donald

Trump has hit a ceiling getting essentially zero bump from selecting JD Vance from the Republican

National Convention from the failed assassination attempt and from a

performance that was I I guess, better than Joe Biden's in the June 27th debate, but certainly nothing particularly exciting to write home about.

The peak for Trump may be right now, and he can't even get to 48% of the vote.

Let me explain why this is so critical.

We know that if we look at 2016, Donald Trump got 46% of

the popular vote and after everything that transpired in the four years between 2016 and 2020.

Donald Trump in 2020 also got 46% of the popular vote.

Now by a fraction of a point, it was a little more in 2020 than in 2016.

In 2016 he just eked out an electoral win in 2020 he lost electorally in both cases

coming down to relatively few votes in just a handful

or even fewer states. This time around we were led to believe Biden is so

unpopular. The administration is failing so poorly eggs

are so expensive fill in the blanks that it was going to be a disastrous situation for the Democratic nominee for a long time expected

to be Joe Biden and it was just going to be awesome for Trump.

And then Biden's failed debate performance and then the excitement of the RNC and then Trump being shot at and surviving and coming out victorious with his fist raise saying fight fight fight.

This was going to be explosive and then all of a

sudden we look at the polling and there is essentially no bump there is nothing else he can do at this point and with hundreds

of millions of dollars pouring in to Kamala Harris's campaign this might be it and this is why they are so panicked. So let's take a review

of the numbers. We have across real clear politics average polling, a 1.7 percentage point lead for Trump. Now most of this polling most of this polling

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