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PFF Fantasy Football Podcast

687. What did we learn about fantasy wide receivers in 2022?

PFF Fantasy Football Podcast

Fantasy Football

Sports, Nfl, Fantasy, Football, Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Football, Betting

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 3 February 2023

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Host Ian Hartitz is riding solo to break down five key questions at the wide receiver position: Is wide receiver fantasy scoring largely better than ever?, Are the league’s best wide receivers getting more volume than ever?, Have certain offenses consistently fed their wide receivers more fantasy-friendly volume than others in recent history?, How well is the fantasy industry identifying the top wide receivers based on preseason average draft position (ADP)?, and What sort of archetype is optimal for late-round wide receivers? Truly a great day to be great in another electric edition of The PFF Fantasy Football Podcast.

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm your host, Ian Hart. It's happy, freaking Friday, whatever day it might be that you're listening to this. Hope you guys enjoyed some of those crazy,

0:21.0

probable events already got the rant off my chest about Tyler Huntley as everyone else has in the media world if you will. So yeah, bigger, better things to talk about specifically today as we've been doing this little series on comeback.

0:34.0

Look at a lot of just big, good picture questions I have about the wide receiver position after and always entertaining 2022, fancy football years.

0:42.0

So have a lot of what I'm talking about up on an article on pff.com as you guys know. So if you missed anything, want to see these charts I'm talking about, go ahead, head over there and check them out to your host desires. So without further ado, guys, yeah, let's talk some wide receivers because remember the real trendy the draft strategies zero or be here or be my least favorite one not in terms of usage, but just hate the freaking name modified zero or be all of these strategies are based around the idea of the

1:12.0

wide receiver position is going to be easier to identify big time talents in the early and middle rounds as opposed to later. So that sounds great. You've got a lot of really good wide receivers early, maybe you anchor them down to one RB, maybe get Travis Kelsey, then you can attack the other positions later.

1:28.0

So far with running back, we have found that I believe it was an average of 2.2 running backs per season, end up as top 12 scores in terms of ppr points per game, despite not even having an ADP inside the positions top 24 at one receiver, you see far less examples of guys or I should say we should see far less examples of guys having that, you know, real low ADP, then all of a sudden booming up the top the fancy ranks when everything is said and done.

1:55.0

So do some of the things we're going to be trying to answer today question number one is why receiver fancy scoring largely better and ever question number two are the league's best wide receivers getting more volume than ever question number three have certain offense consistently fed their wide receivers more fancy fairly volume than others in recent history.

2:10.0

Question number four how well is fancy and should identify the top wide receivers based on preseason ADP and question number five what sort of archetypes often for late round wide receivers as always second fancy pros for the historical ADP data I'm talking about full ppr scoring.

2:26.0

Okay I've had some of you complain not complain offer a suggestion to the podcast track always appreciate even if it could possibly be called a complaint but I know how ppr that's my favorite you know personally I don't think a catch should be rewarded one entire point equivalent to 10 receiving the rushing yards it's

2:46.0

and say to me but to my knowledge the base in the industry and just a mostly that people normally use our full ppr song really contain to roll with that as the default and also ranks are going to be on a per game basis with a minimum of eight games play so I don't want to just make this a study of who was actually healthy enough to rack up you know 16 17 games played that's this question and a story for another day so

3:09.0

taking things off again guys question number one is wider receiver fancy scoring largely better never answer is no it's not it's not terrible but really we saw the peak in that was prime AB Julio Jones years on the 2013 2014 and 2015 the average ppr points for game from the top 12 player to the position 18.9 19.6 and 19.9 we haven't seen a wider see was cracked that 19 marks since 2018 so hasn't been terrible hasn't been consistent trend

3:38.0

I mean again balling out in the earlier part of the 2010s fell off and been 2016 2017 before but we've again seen a kind of settle in the middle over these past three years same thing goes through the top 24 so my initial thought upon seeing this goes again it was weird to me because quarterback scoring as we talked about is on the open up it is doing better than ever so if

3:59.0

why receiver scoring isn't doing better never maybe that means you know we're having more production flowing through the running back in tight end positions and the past that would make sense but it's really not the case I mean this last season we'll talk a little more about tight ends next week but second lowest worst season from the top 12 tight ends in terms of their average ppr points for game over the past 10 years and

4:20.0

running back on these last three years have been a downward trend as well so why do you see the running back in tight end scoring alike not exactly booming very interesting that quarterback scoring is booming and I think that again guys tells you a lot about the impact of dual threat quarterbacks which are becoming more and more frequent in the NFL it's awesome for them a lot of times it's

4:41.0

awesome for their real life team I mean look at the freaking quarterback you've seen how much success this year you know both real life and fantasy it's not good for the running back wide receivers and tight ends of those offences because again we're seeing teams a lot of times when you have the Russian quarterback you do lead a little more run heavy and let's face it when you're leading more run heavy and you have an extra player in the quarterback back in the Russian pie then usual it just gets tough for these again skill position weapons outside the quarterback to make a bunch of

5:10.0

hey and fantasy land so takes us to our second question are the leagues best wide receivers getting more volume than ever answers no I think this more than anything because again the wide receivers aren't quite scoring as much we've established that running backs and tight ends aren't scoring as much either so our wide receivers you know falling off because they're not getting the same sort of volume I do think there's a slight argument to be made that we're seeing auxiliary wide receivers your two

5:39.0

is your three is we're seeing things you know dished out a little bit more evenly because if you look at it and I pulled over these past 10 years number of wide receivers per season that have X amount of targets and I have buckets of 100 125 and 150 and once again the heyday for just alpha target hog wide receivers breeze and past 150 targets took more you know we have more these frequent players in the earlier part of the 2010 so number of players from 2013 to 2016 with at least a week of the game in the end of the year.

6:08.0

We had to be able to do a few things with at least 150 targets specifically wide receivers we had 10 4 8 and 9 I mean 60 years since guys we don't have one year over six so last year we did have five you before that we had eight those are 17 games season 2020 only three players have more than 150 targets so I know this one is a little bit more you know into the injury type of thing who was healthy enough to be at you long enough to have all these targets but again it's just surprised me that passing league off fences may be a little bit more than that.

6:37.0

Offences maybe not as much this year but generally you know offensive success particularly passing ball has been at all time high efficiency levels and recent modern you know football and the wide receiver position in terms of their fancy scoring in terms of number of players with super high and target totals aren't exactly what they were even 10 years ago so again not brittle similar to the scoring it's not like we're seeing this as a consistent downward trend I mean if anything

7:05.0

it's kind of gone from really good to really bad and then back somewhere in the middle so unfortunately so far we don't have any massive takeaways with this just because again it's a situation where it's not been too big of a consistent trend it's just kind of middleing out let's move on and find out if certain offense is a consistently fed their wide receivers more fancy friendly volume than others and recent history so answer this question for the running back group as well basically all we're doing.

7:31.0

We're taking the expected ppr points for game from an entire teams wide receiver room averaging those out for over the past three years and also looking at the real life scoring success in terms of teams points per game so again looking for teams that are either really good on offense but surprisingly don't have the best you know balling for their wide receivers and the other side of things teams that have an offense but have fostered somehow you know good enough often some environments to give their wide receivers a bunch of fancy friendly opportunities so first things first.

8:00.0

Four offenses that have really given their wide receivers a ton of opportunity despite not being all that great as real life offenses the Rams just 21st points for game over the past three seasons that said they have the third most expected ppr points for game a lot of to their wide receivers during that stretch unfortunately for you a raw truth is out there most of those have consistently just got to Cooper cup Pittsburgh Steelers fit best fancy friendly workload for their wide receivers 24th ranked offense.

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