Please stay tuned for important disclosure information at the conclusion of this episode.

Hello and welcome to a special Thanksgiving edition of the Morning Filter podcast.

I'm Susan Jibinsky with Morningstar.

Every Monday before market open, Morningstar Chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sikara,

and I sit down to talk about what investors should have on their radars for the week, some new Morning Star research, and a few stock ideas.

Now Dave and I are pre-taping this week's episode on Friday, November 21st.

We have a short week ahead thanks to the holiday, so Dave and I decided to spend most

of this episode diving into our viewer mailbag, answering

several questions that you, our audience, have been asking us.

But before we do, let's talk a little bit about what's on Dave's radar this week.

All, Dave, we're getting some mixed signals about what economic reports we will and we won't

be getting now that the government shutdown has ended. So what impact do you think that'll have on the Fed's rate decision next month?

Well, let me, hey, well, first of all, good morning, Susan, before I jump into this.

And happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

So let's just cut to the chase.

So Morningstar's Chief U.S. economist did just change his forecast. So he is now looking for the Fed to skip cutting rates at the December meeting. However, he is expecting an ongoing downward trend in payrolls. We'll end up forcing the Fed to resume cutting rates at the January meeting. The December meeting, of course, is December at 9th and 10th,

so look for the decision on the 10th. Then the meeting after that in January is January 27th and

28th. So as far as what has been reported, so we've got all the weekly initial jobless claims

numbers. Personally, I ignore those. I think they're really just more noise than anything else.

And then we got the non-farm payrolls report for September.

Personally, I'm just not going to read all that much into it for a couple of different reasons. So first of all, between the government shutdown and the huge restatements that we often get in these reports, you know, hidden the past,

I think these

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