6/13/24: Hunter/Michelle conspiracy goes wild, corporate media ignoring Trump's mental illness
The David Pakman Show
David Pakman
4.8 • 6.2K Ratings
🗓️ 13 June 2024
⏱️ 65 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome everybody. We start with what it's considered a big deal in the election projection sort of industry today which is that 538 has |
| 0:16.0 | published its first 2024 election projection Trump versus Biden and the results can we call them stunning can we |
| 0:26.7 | call them shocking can we call them surprising I don't know where that noise |
| 0:31.4 | came from no we really can't call them any of those things. We can call them |
| 0:37.1 | corroborating of exactly what I've been laying out to you for months now. The 538 projection who is favored to win the |
| 0:45.4 | 2024 presidential election 53 times out of a hundred in simulations |
| 0:51.6 | Biden wins 53 out of a hundred in simulations Biden wins 53 out of a hundred and in 47 out of a hundred What this means is that it is a toss-up. What this means is that exactly what I have |
| 1:05.4 | been saying, those who are confidently declaring that Biden obviously will win or |
| 1:11.2 | not basing their projection in reality. |
| 1:13.7 | Those who are confidently projecting that it is Donald Trump who will win or not basing |
| 1:17.9 | their projection in reality and that this is likely to come down to a relatively |
| 1:22.3 | small number of votes in a small number of states. |
| 1:25.2 | Now let's dig into the simulation a little bit more deeply. |
| 1:30.5 | As you can see here there is a sort of distribution curve, and I'll describe what we're looking at for people who are only listening. |
| 1:37.0 | There's a distribution curve of possible outcomes, and as you can see, they are really grouped right around the middle. |
| 1:44.0 | You could make the case that there are more scenarios in which Trump wins. |
| 1:50.0 | This isn't really an accurate interpretation of this model. What the model does |
| 1:54.9 | suggest is that some of Trump's paths to 270 electoral votes include a larger |
| 2:02.1 | margin of victory than some of Biden's and that's by the very |
| 2:05.3 | nature of which states are definitely going to go Biden and Trump and and sort of |
| 2:09.9 | the realities of that. If you're interested in seeing the full list of polls |
| 2:14.2 | that 538 uses in making these projections you can do that it's not super |
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