566 | Risk-Based Guardrails for Retirement Drawdown

ChooseFI | Financial Independence Podcast

Jonathan Mendonsa & Brad Barrett | Choose FI Media, Inc

Careers, Business, Investing

4.8 • 5.2K Ratings

🗓️ 29 September 2025

⏱️ 87 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

If you've mentally locked yourself into one rigid FI number and one fixed withdrawal rate for the rest of your life, you're doing it wrong. That's the realization Brad Barrett had after nine years of hosting this podcast — and it came from Aubrey Williams, a financial advisor and longtime ChooseFI community member. In his presentation at CampFI, Aubrey introduced a more dynamic approach: using historical analysis and risk-based guardrails to adjust spending as your portfolio fluctuates. The result? You could potentially reach FI sooner and spend more once you're there. The conversation challenges the traditional 4% withdrawal rule by recognizing that markets aren't static and neither should your spending be. Aubrey explains how even small changes in monthly expenses drastically affect your FI number, and how setting flexible "guardrails" — thresholds where you adjust spending up or down based on portfolio performance — can replace the anxiety of a single fixed target with confidence grounded in historical data. He also emphasizes that frugality still matters on the path to wealth, and that reaching FI is as much a mindset shift toward thoughtful spending as it is hitting a number. Beyond the math, the episode explores the philosophy of FI, the value of community engagement at events like CampFI, and the external forces that shape financial decisions. Tools like FIREcalc, Engaging Data, and Projection Lab are discussed as resources to model your own flexible withdrawal strategy. Timestamps & Discussion Topics: [00:00:00] Intro to Financial Independence Overview of the FI journey and the community's philosophy. [00:03:00] Aubrey's Background From corporate career to financial advisor, emphasizing experiences with the FI community. [00:15:00] Understanding Withdrawal Rates The traditional 4% withdrawal rule, its limitations, and the importance of knowing what your portfolio should allow you to spend. [00:18:04] The Forces Influencing Spending Recognizing external influences that shape financial decisions and how awareness can help mitigate them. [00:29:57] Community Engagement — CampFI and Meetups The value of attending CampFI and other local FI meetups for motivation and networking. [00:53:00] Risk-Based Guardrails Explained Introducing the concept of risk-based guardrails to adjust spending dynamically based on portfolio performance. Key Quotes: "Adjusting spending when your portfolio hits a certain number is key for financial confidence. Historical analysis provides the guidance you need." — Aubrey (00:20:18) "Stay aware of the powerful forces that influence your financial decisions." — Aubrey (00:18:04) "Reaching FI requires a mindset shift towards thoughtful spending." — Aubrey (00:38:26) "Understanding the math behind a 4% withdrawal rate is essential for financial planning." — Aubrey (00:16:00) Action Items: Calculate your FI number based on current expenses and explore how small reductions can lower your target (00:16:18) Download resources at Open Path Financial to understand risk-based guardrails (00:23:45) Use tools like FIREcalc or Engaging Data to model flexible withdrawal strategies Join a local FI meetup to connect with others and share insights (00:29:57) Related Resources: Open Path Financial — Financial planning services by Aubrey CampFI — Community events for personal finance enthusiasts Projection Lab — Financial modeling tools ▶ Listen Next: Ep. 567 — Are We Taking the Wrong Risks? | Essential Listening

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hello and welcome to Chuzafi. Today in the show, we have Aubrey Williams. He's a longtime member of the Chusify community, the Phi community, and he is now a financial advisor. And he created an incredible presentation that he gave at Camp Phi recently called Everyone Adjusts. And this was really looking at your withdrawal rate and using historical analysis and risk-based
0:23.5	guardrails, which he's going to talk about in great depth, to potentially reach FI sooner
0:28.0	and spend more once you get to FI. This episode was really transformative for me because
0:35.3	I've always thought about FI, even though I've done this for
0:38.3	nine years now on the podcast, and I understand deeply how a lot of this stuff works, I've really
0:43.8	thought of a withdrawal rate as one constant thing and my FI number as one constant thing.
0:49.9	And what Aubrey's helped me understand is I need to consider both the eventualities when my
0:55.7	net worth decreases once I'm withdrawing, but also increases and how that might impact how
1:01.3	much I can spend. Instead of thinking about it as one monolithic number that is set in stone forever,
1:07.0	we have to understand that everyone adjusts as the presentation is titled. And I think this is going to
1:14.0	really open your eyes to something that's going to help you, like we said, reach FI sooner and spend
1:20.9	more potentially. So I know you're going to get a lot out of that. But at the beginning of the
1:25.5	episode, we also talk a little more about the philosophy of FI. And this is what I appreciate about Aubrey so much is he writes me emails
1:32.2	multiple times a year in response to my newsletter and just writes the most incredibly insightful
1:37.4	things. And I wanted to give you a flavor of that as well. So not only is there the analytical,
1:43.5	the financial advisor, but there's more
1:45.8	of really the essence of phi. I think this is a phenomenal episode. I think you're going to get a lot out of it.
1:50.9	And with that, welcome to choose that pie.
2:00.6	Aubrey, welcome to choose a pie. I'm so happy to have you here. Thank you, Brad. Thank you. It's amazing to be here with you. The last time I saw you, we were having breakfast. Now we're doing this. It's like no time has passed at all. Yeah, seriously. Six months after economy. We're having breakfast there in Cincinnati. And yeah,
2:19.0	it's really cool. You are someone who reaches out to me quite often. And I'm so deeply appreciative of your
2:26.9	emails. I know you, you often respond to my five-weekly newsletter that I send out on Tuesdays
2:32.7	with just the most thoughtful, deeply introspective
	...

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