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538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.3K Ratings

🗓️ 25 April 2024

⏱️ 43 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript


The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right I'm good to go. I have this spreadsheet up and I have you up. I have coffee. Do you have anything else?


I couldn't tell if you were being cheeky. Always being cheeky. Oh, are we are we British? Is that an overly British word to use?


I don't know if you miss this and all of the polling averaging you've been doing, but this is America?


These polls are of Scotland. That's why they look so weird


Hello and welcome to the 538 politics podcast. I'm Gailin Druk and happy 538


polling average day. Yes, that's right. Today we are launching our state and national polling averages. From this day


fourth, there will be no more poll by poll freakouts. Everyone will say, put it in the average and move on and that will be that.


Of course I can't there will still be many freakouts but you do your listener need not


participate because you have the 538 averages at your fingers.


In fact, you can go check them out right now


at 538.com.


But if you're more of an auditory learner,


as of 3 p.m. on April 24th, Trump leads Biden nationally by half a percentage point, so roughly a tie.


In the Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and maybe add North Carolina to the Sunbelt states, Trump leads


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