This is what we're gonna do. It's going to work out well because I said so.

I'm Antelod Duckworth.

I'm Stephen Dubner. And you're listening to no stupid questions.

Today I'm the show. What's the secret to making a great prediction?

My prediction would have been right if these things had happened.

Also, why do even the most successful people have bad days?

The eggs were overcooked.

Angela Duckworth?

Stephen Dubner.

There is at least one way that I would very much like to be more like my son, Solomon,

who's a college sophomore.

He seems capable of making predictions in a way that is totally divorced from emotion

even when he has a stake in the thing he's predicting.

So as an example, he works in politics.

Okay.

And he follows things closely and he has some decent information.

So he often has a pretty good sense of who's going to win a campaign,

whether it's his candidate or the other.

And even if it's the opponent, he's pretty realistic about not letting his fan interests get in the way.

The same thing for sports.

And he'll even say, I have a lot of confidence in this particular projection.

Even though he is never studied with the forecasting guru Phil Tetlock, who you know,

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