5 Reasons 2025 Could Be a Turbulent Year for Stocks
Big Picture Retirement®
Devin Carroll
4.7 • 546 Ratings
🗓️ 16 December 2024
⏱️ 32 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Could 2025 be a stormy year for the stock market? In this episode, we explore five potential triggers that could send markets into turmoil. From the unpredictability of Trump-era "tape bombs" to a potential bursting of the AI bubble, we break down the risks investors should watch for. We also examine how protectionist trade policies, signs of an economic slowdown, and a possible Federal Reserve policy pivot could create turbulence. If you're looking to stay ahead of the curve and prepare for what's next, this is the episode for you.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The Big Picture Retirement Show does not provide tax, legal, or financial advice. Listeners are encouraged to seek out their own advisors in these areas. Hey, everyone, welcome to the Big Picture Retirement Show. I'm your host, Devin, joined by my co-host. John K. Ross. Howdy? You thought I was going to say a squire there at the end. I did I did. You paused. I paused. I was waiting for it. So for anyone listening, that was not a |
| 0:24.6 | creative edit. That was John pausing for the Esquire coming in. All right, John, as we finish up |
| 0:32.6 | 2024, it's been another good year for the market. Mm-hmm. 2020 was good. Now, 2024 has been good. So what's ahead for 2025? You know, the common thinking is that, all right, we finished up a good year. Now, let's hold our breath. How's next year going to be? And the market doesn't know the bounds of a calendar, right? But that's just the way we measure it. Sure. You know, from January 1st to December 31st, |
| 0:55.8 | what did the market do? It gives us a good set of dates to monitor it by. So looking ahead at |
| 1:03.9 | 2025, now, I'm no, I'm no market forecaster. In fact, the times that I have attempted to engage in |
| 1:10.2 | market forecasting, it hasn't worked out so well. |
| 1:13.1 | Correct. |
| 1:14.1 | So I just don't attempt it, right? |
| 1:17.0 | And I don't think you can ever look ahead at what's going to happen. |
| 1:20.9 | And certainly, you don't want to make investment decisions based on gut-filling about something. |
| 1:25.6 | Correct. |
| 1:26.0 | You just don't. |
| 1:26.9 | You know, with all of the research I have available to me, both the paid research and all |
| 1:30.5 | of the bevy of free research I have sent to me, you know, what I see is that most of the time |
| 1:35.4 | they were wrong. |
| 1:35.9 | Case in point. |
| 1:36.8 | At the beginning of 2023, I believe it was, 91 or 92 percent of all analysts at the big firm surveyed, and we're talking an overwhelming majority, believe that a recession was imminent. |
| 1:50.5 | Yep. I remember all of the talk about such things. |
| 1:54.1 | Recession, recession, recession's going to happen. And yet here we are two years later. And there still hasn't been the classic recession that's happened. |
| 2:01.6 | Right. And so when you're looking at the market forecasters and you're looking at the smart people, the |
| 2:07.9 | room full of bow ties, as I call them. Why is it always the bowtie? Well, you know, all the CFAs love to |
| 2:14.6 | have bow ties. That just, it marks them. You don't have one. |
... |
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