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Hello and welcome to the Morning Filter podcast.

I'm Susan Jubinsky with Morningstar.

Every Monday before market open, I sit down with Morningstar Chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sikara to talk about what investors should have on their radars for the week, some

to morning star research, and a few stock ideas. All right, well, grab your coffee because Dave and I

have a lot of ground to cover this morning. Now, last Friday's Supreme Court ruling struck

down some of the Trump administration's tariffs. So, Dave, what could this mean for the markets

going forward?

Hey, good morning, Susan. I think it was Yogi Berra that once said it ain't over until it's over.

And at this point, it ain't over yet. In fact, President Trump already announced some new tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act. And these can be in place for the next 150 days without any other kind of

legal authorization.

My assumption, he's going to look to other alternative legal formats or frameworks to be

able to put new tariffs out there.

And, of course, when those come about, they will impact trade negotiations going forward.

But for now, from a broad record perspective, I think investors just need to ask themselves, you know, how meaningful is this to future earnings growth for those companies that they're invested in?

Now, over the past year, I think we need to look at, you know, really what's happened while the existing tariffs or the prior tariffs, you know, were in place.

And of course, you know, during the negotiations, some of them were suspended, put back in place, you know, and back and

forth. But either way, you know, from an economic point of view, real GDP in the U.S. in

2025 was much stronger than economists had originally anticipated when those Liberation Day

tariffs were first announced. Just running through the numbers here, you know, in Q2, we had 3% GDP growth, Q3, we had 4.4% GDP growth.

And then in the fourth quarter, that was just announced at 1.4% growth.

However, if you didn't have the government shut down, GDP in the fourth quarter would have been over 2.4%.

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