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The Breakdown

5 Numbers That Tell the Story of Markets Right Now

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8806 Ratings

🗓️ 4 June 2020

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Every day that protests continue and the stock market goes up, more people ask what the disconnect between markets and the real economy is. In this episode of The Breakdown, NLW peels back the story of today’s economy by looking at five numbers: The growth of the S&P500 since the March 23 low Current unemployment stats and a Bloomberg Economics estimate of the number of jobs at risk The performance of the S&P500 in 1968, one of the most tumultuous years in American history The total percentage of the world’s debt denominated in dollar terms The number of flights between the US and China by Chinese airlines going forward

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome back to the breakdown, an everyday analysis breaking down the most important stories in Bitcoin, crypto, and beyond.

0:13.5

This episode is sponsored by BitStamp and Cipher Trace. The breakdown is produced and distributed by CoinDesk.

0:22.6

And now, here's your host, NLW.

0:30.5

Welcome back to The Breakdown.

0:32.6

It is Wednesday, June 3rd, and today we are going to be looking at a topic that has all of Twitter really

0:39.6

talking, which is the disconnect between markets and the world around us. And the way that we're

0:45.8

going to do it is by looking at five different numbers that tell the story of markets right now.

0:51.5

Each of these numbers is a stand-in for a larger representative force in markets.

0:57.3

And I thought this would be a good way to explore a number of different dimensions all at once.

1:01.7

So let's dive in. All right, the first number that we're going to look at is 37.7%. That is the

1:09.7

return of the S&P 500 over the last 50 days. The important part of this is

1:15.2

this is now officially the largest 50-day rally in history. The S&P's low was hit on March 23rd, and ever

1:24.7

since then, there has been a steady climb as effectively the Federal Reserve steps in and

1:30.5

says they will backstop the entire economy no matter what it takes, no matter what strategy it takes.

1:36.0

That has been music to the market's ears.

1:38.3

And right now, this is the only thing that matters in these markets, what the Fed is willing to do to make sure

1:45.9

asset prices go up. Analysts like Mike Larson from Weiss ratings have said that the disconnect

1:51.9

between markets and fundamentals is as high as anything they've ever seen. But even that fact,

1:58.7

even that agreed upon fact, is not stopping people from going all in on this market.

2:04.0

And they have historical precedent.

2:06.2

The previous seven other largest 50-day rallies, in each case, stocks were higher both six and 12 months every single time.

2:15.5

So effectively, the bet here, the bet on the stock market right now

...

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