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On The Market

47: 80% of US Housing Is Overvalued, But Where Will Prices Drop the Most? w/Cris deRitis

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Education, Business, Investing

4.8858 Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2022

⏱️ 53 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

US housing markets have started to shift. The massive run-up in home prices eventually led us to high interest rates, high inflation, and a generation of renters who can’t afford to buy, even with price cuts. This should come as no surprise, as Moody's Analytics estimates that some eighty percent of real estate markets are overvalued. Of those markets, where are the opportunities to invest the highest as prices naturally start to decline? Instead of speculating, we brought Cris deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, onto the show to explain why this is happening, what his team is forecasting, and how investors like us can stay prepared. Cris and his team diligently look through data to predict how the housing market will move. He knows that it’ll take time for the market to finally reach equilibrium again. But, unfortunately, this may not happen any time soon. Cris’s team is focusing on looking at a few things: demographics, supply, and demand. Each influences the others severely and leaves hints at where the housing market is headed next. Dave and James tag-team this episode, touching on whether US housing will become even more unaffordable, long-term home supply predictions, affordable housing, and a demand drop-off that could end real estate investing over the next decade. In This Episode We Cover Overvalued housing markets and why most homes in the US aren’t worth the price How to forecast housing market movements and the most important factors to look for Whether or not the US will end up like other countries with astronomical home prices  Home price drops and how bad it could get in the most overvalued cities Which real estate markets will still see price growth in the coming months/years The myth of affordable housing and why everyone (and no one) wants to build it Population drop-offs, demand shifts, and other future events that could kill the housing market  And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave’s BiggerPockets Profile Dave’s Instagram James' BiggerPockets Profile James' Instagram Book Mentioned in the Show Real Estate by Numbers by Dave Meyer & J Scott (Use Code “DAVE” For 10% Off!) Connect with Cris: Cris' Email Cris' LinkedIn Cris' Twitter Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-47 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This podcast is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, Fiscally Responsible, Financial Geniuses, Monetary Magicians.

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Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.

0:18.5

Hey, Henry Washington here from the On the Market Pod.

0:23.1

You ever get frustrated while hunting for off-market properties?

0:24.1

Well, you're not alone.

0:29.0

Just ask Alex, a fellow real estate investor who was in the same boat struggling to find those hidden gems.

0:30.4

Then he discovered Deal Machine.

0:36.3

Now, Alex effortlessly locates off-market gems leveraging Deal Machine's free unlimited contact data,

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powered by the robust databases used by 911 call centers. And it automates mail campaigns seamlessly. So you're ready to revolutionize

0:44.0

your real estate game like Alex? Visit biggerpockets.com slash deal machine, sign up for free

0:48.7

and start transforming your property hunting today. You ever feel like your vacation rental since

0:53.8

MT too often?

0:55.0

Missing out on potential income?

0:56.5

Look, you're not alone.

0:57.2

Many property owners struggle with underperforming bookings in the complexities of property

1:01.0

management.

1:01.7

But here's some good news.

1:02.9

Vacasa outperforms other property managers in 92% of the markets they operate.

1:08.4

They've held homeowners like you increase their bookings by an average of 24% turning

1:12.9

those empty days into profitable opportunities.

...

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