#47: 31 July 1914 IV - 'A Finger's Breadth From War'

When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

Zack Twamley

19th Century, 20th Century, International Relations, Politics, Thirty Years' War, Korean War, 18th Century, First World War, Phd, 17th Century, European History, History, War

4.8 • 773 Ratings

🗓️ 17 February 2025

⏱️ 35 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.

German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was impossible to stop the mobilisation, but was this true? Sazonov might claim that mobilisation did not have to mean war, but could he guarantee this if Austrian troops invaded Serbia?

The scales were falling, but they had not yet hit the ground. Just as the Tsar could not offer clarity, the Kaiser's men were unable to confirm or deny their position on Belgian neutrality, despite knowing the importance of this question in London. Grey's diplomacy had been outpaced by the ultimata from Berlin, but as the hourglass drained, the German ambassador made a final desperate effort to leverage something, anything, which might persuade Russia to stand down. The message from Berlin was plain, even if it was inconsistently expressed - she did not want war, but felt forced into making it. Whether this message would resonate with European opinion, however, was another story.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	In summer 1914, the world went to war.
0:04.6	Now 110 years later, we go back to those figures, to those debates, to those questions,
0:12.2	in the greatest failure in the history of diplomacy.
0:16.3	I am Dr. Zach Twomley. You're listening to When Diplomacy Fails, and this is the July
0:23.2	Crisis. Public opinion, a little less excited today, thanks to the efforts of the government.
1:00.0	Hope of success in pending negotiations revived.
1:03.6	Suspicion that we are inciting to war fading away.
1:07.4	Mood, in the event peace cannot be preserved, is that of determined resignation.
1:14.6	Baron-Schohen, German ambassador to France, describes the situation for Berlin, 31st of July, 1914.
1:24.6	Between 6 and 7pm on the 31st of July, German Secretary of State Gottlieb von
1:31.5	Jagov recognised that his mission had changed. Once charged with using all diplomatic
1:37.4	means at his disposal to avoid war, Yagov now exercised his diplomatic muscle to ensure
1:43.4	that whatever war did erupt,
1:45.4	Germany would be joined by allies in addition to Vienna.
1:49.3	The key, as Yagov knew, was finding powers who would be prepared to act against Russia,
1:54.6	and two in particular stood out from the others.
1:57.3	The first of these was Romania, and negotiations with her government had not been entirely positive.
2:03.6	The Order of the Day in Bucharest appeared to be one of watchful neutrality.
2:08.9	Romania would wait and see before Owen Bratianu, the Prime Minister, made his decision.
2:15.2	Yagov knew he had to sweeten the deal, and at 6pm, he wrote,
2:20.2	Please state to King Carroll and Mr. Bratiano at once.
2:23.6	Should at war with Russia prove unavoidable,
	...

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