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The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong

The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish

Farnam Street

Business, Investing, Entrepreneurship

4.72.9K Ratings

🗓️ 25 July 2018

⏱️ 117 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

I have wanted to do this interview for a long time. On this episode, I am thrilled to have Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author of the new book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.

Annie has a very interesting background that makes her uniquely qualified to speak about high-level decision making. As an author, speaker, world-class poker player, and academic in the fields of psychology and cognitive theory, Annie understands the intersection of luck, skill, and making decisions in uncertain, chaotic environments better than most people on the planet.

This is a whirlwind of an episode, and we cover all kinds of fascinating topics, including:

  • The strange circumstances that shifted Annie’s path from finishing a Ph.D. in linguistics to becoming a professional poker player
  • What it was like to be a female poker player in a predominantly male sport (especially before poker had become socially acceptable)
  • What drew Annie into such a high stakes, time-pressured environment and why she felt like poker was the perfect fit for her
  • How her graduate work in psychology informed the way she approached the game of poker — and helped her rack up wins
  • How she finds the signal in a very noisy stream of feedback
  • The big mistakes Annie noticed other players making that were stalling their progress in the game but allowed her to make giant leaps forward
  • The role that mental models played in her learning process (and which models Annie liked to lean on the most in a high stakes game)
  • The power of surrounding yourself with people that can help you expand your circle of competence — and how that made all the difference in Annie’s development as a player
  • Confirmatory and exploratory thought, and how one helps us to be “accurate” and one helps us to be “right.”
  • The secret pact you should be making with the people who are closest to you

And so much more.

This episode is just under two hours long, but there’s no fat in it. Annie delivers a masterclass in making the smartest decisions we can, even when our hubris insists otherwise. Do some finger stretches before hitting play, because you’re going to be taking some serious notes.

Please enjoy the interview!

***

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

So I wanted to ask you about what you're taking on the morality of gambling is.

0:04.6

Oh, I wasn't expecting that question.

0:16.0

Hello and welcome. I'm Shane Parish and this is another episode of The Knowledge Project.

0:21.5

This show explores ideas, methods, mental models and frameworks that will help you expand your mind,

0:27.2

live deliberately and master the best of what other people have already figured out.

0:32.0

You can learn more at fs.blog slash podcast.

0:36.3

My guest today is former professional poker player Annie Duke.

0:39.8

Annie and I first met in Philadelphia where we sat down to record this conversation.

0:44.5

Her book Thinking in Bats is about how we can make smarter decisions when we don't have all the facts.

0:49.6

In this deep dive conversation Annie offers insight into poker, the cognitive biases that lead

0:55.6

us to stray and she offers a master class in decision making. Enjoy.

1:08.1

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1:11.8

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1:55.2

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1:59.4

Annie, welcome to the show. I want to start with someone who is originally on track to become a

...

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