meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
BiggerPockets Money Podcast

351: Does the 4% Rule Hold During 2022's Stock Market Crash?

BiggerPockets Money Podcast

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business

4.62.9K Ratings

🗓️ 7 November 2022

⏱️ 70 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Stock market crashes aren't good news for anyone. For retirees though, this dip in prices can feel like a death wish, as active income is no longer an option. Have the hopes and dreams of financial flexibility gone out the window? Or is a market crash like we're experiencing today just a small blip on a retiree's radar? Pairing this with inflation, how will someone who has just retired make it?

We’ve got Michael Kitcesretirement planning expert and financial genius with enough acronyms coming after his name to spell out the alphabet, on the show to answer whether or not retirees are in trouble. Michael has advised his clients for decades on the right way to save and invest for retirement. He’s been a proponent of the 4% rule and was bold enough to hold his claim even during the flash crash of 2020. But, with such high inflation and stark drops in equity values, does he still agree with his past predictions?

Michael takes us on a trip down memory lane, visiting some of the worst financial crises in American history, showing how they compare to today. He also proposes that holding large amounts of cash, even during high inflationary times, isn’t the worst move to make, and whether or not he’s still investing as the market finds its bottom. If you’re worried about retiring during times like today, this is the man to listen to!


In This Episode We Cover

The 4% rule explained and whether this sage retirement advice still holds up

How past retirees fared during high inflationlow growth time periods

Which types of market crashes can be “dangerous” to retirees (and who should be worried)

Why some of the brightest minds in personal finance are clinging to cash 

Purchasing power and how withdrawal rates are affected by high inflation

The smartest move to make if you’re worried your retirement savings aren’t enough

And So Much More!


Links from the Show

Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent

BiggerPockets Money Facebook Group

BiggerPockets Forums

Finance Review Guest Onboarding

Mindy's Twitter

Scott's Instagram

Listen to All Your Favorite BiggerPockets Podcasts in One Place

Apply to Be a Guest on The Money Show

Podcast Talent Search!

Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel

Listen to The “On The Market” Podcast: SpotifyApple PodcastsBiggerPockets

Check Out Mindy’s 2022 Live Spending Tracker and Budget

Buckingham Wealth Partners

Bill Bengen (The Inventor of the 4% Rule) Talks Retirement, Past Crashes, and How You Can Withdraw Even More!

Original Article from the Journal Of Financial Planning, October 1994

Are FIRE Naysayers Bad at Math? Yes. with Michael Kitces


Click here to check the full show notes: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/money-351


Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Check out our sponsor page!

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Bigger Pog its Money Podcast where we interview Michael Kitsus and talk about inflation and this crazy stock market.

0:08.0

The 4% rule which was kind of built around these balanced portfolios that we regularly rebalance to

0:14.0

wasn't meant to be prescriptive about how the portfolio is managed. It was meant to be a baseline about how the portfolio is managed.

0:21.0

Not the least of which because we've got historical data and it's really easy to calculate like what your word turn would have been for an annually rebalanced balance portfolio.

0:29.0

It's a very straightforward way to calculate a baseline of what would have worked historically.

0:34.0

Hello, hello, hello, my name is Mindy Jensen and with me as always is my now officially qualified to make dad jokes cohost Scott Trench.

0:44.0

Oh, baby.

0:46.0

Scott and I are here to make financial independence less scary, less just for somebody else to introduce you to every money story because we truly believe financial freedom is attainable for every single day.

0:58.0

No matter when or where you're starting whether you want to retire early or travel the world going to make big time investments and assets like real estate or start your own business will help you reach your financial goals and get money out of the way.

1:10.0

So you can launch yourself towards your dreams relying on the 4% rule.

1:14.0

So Scott, I am super excited to talk to Michael Kitsus today. He is a wealth of knowledge and a wealth of information and he is going to come in and a lay your retirement fears.

1:23.0

I'm very excited to bring him in and let's talk about you before we bring in Michael. What's new with you, Scott?

1:31.0

Well, we recorded a couple of episodes in advance a month or so ago because I was going to be out for a few weeks because my wife and I welcomed a daughter into the world.

1:40.0

Katie, Trench, Catherine, Katie, Trench. So we're very excited for her and she's beautiful and wonderful and we've been enjoying some time with the baby for the last few weeks.

1:50.0

Yay, congratulations. And he's right. She is beautiful. She is wonderful. I harass them all the time for pictures and I have a ton of pictures of my phone.

1:59.0

She's the cutest little thing ever. I can't wait to meet her in real life.

2:03.0

Yeah, we're not sharing a bunch of pictures online right now, but we'll if anyone wants one I can send them directly.

2:08.0

Yeah, so Scott's phone number is Scott.

2:13.0

This show today brings back the fabulous Michael Kitsus. He really doesn't need any introduction, but I'm going to give you an anyway.

2:21.0

He is amazing and wonderful and every single way. He is a CFP. He is the founder of the XY planning network.

2:28.0

He is the author of the nerds eye view blog. He is a financial planner. He runs a huge firm. He writes blogs all the time about money stuff.

2:39.0

He is just very wonderful and every single way. Yeah, he's a master of the subject of retirement planning and the 4% rule and how markets inflation markets inflation interest rates impact portfolios.

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from BiggerPockets, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of BiggerPockets and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.