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TED Talks Daily

3 kinds bias that shape your worldview | J. Marshall Shepherd

TED Talks Daily

TED

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4.111.9K Ratings

🗓️ 11 December 2018

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

What shapes our perceptions (and misperceptions) about science? In an eye-opening talk, meteorologist J. Marshall Shepherd explains how confirmation bias, the Dunning-Kruger effect and cognitive dissonance impact what we think we know -- and shares ideas for how we can replace them with something much more powerful: knowledge.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

This TED Talk features meteorologist J. Marshall Shepard recorded live at TEDx UGA 2018.

0:10.0

Now, I'm a meteorologist by degree. I have a bachelor's, master's, and PhD in physical meteorology.

0:15.0

So I'm a meteorologist, card carrying. And so with that comes four four questions always. This is one prediction I will

0:24.1

always get right. And those questions are, Marshall, what channel are you on? Dr. Shepherd,

0:34.8

what's the weather going to be tomorrow?

0:38.6

And oh, I love this one.

0:41.3

My daughter's getting married next September.

0:42.3

It's an outdoor wedding.

0:43.2

Is it going to rain?

0:46.0

Not kidding.

0:46.7

I get those.

0:48.0

And I don't know the answer to that.

0:49.7

The science isn't there.

0:58.4

But the one I get a lot these days is, Dr. Shepherd, do you believe in climate change?

1:05.4

Do you believe in global warming? Now, I have to gather myself every time I get that question because it's an ill-posed question. Science isn't a belief system. My son, he's 10, he believes in the

1:13.0

tooth fairy. And he needs to get over that because I'm losing dollars fast. But he

1:20.7

believes in the tooth fairy. But consider this. Bank of America building there in Atlanta.

1:27.6

You never hear anyone say, do you believe if you go to the top of that building and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?

1:35.1

You never hear that, because gravity is a thing.

1:39.8

So why don't we hear the question, do you believe in gravity?

1:44.2

But of course we hear the question, do you believe in gravity? But of course we hear the question, do you believe in global warming?

1:49.6

Well, consider these facts.

...

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