258. Jacek Kugler — Putin & Power Transition Theory: China, Russia, and Ukraine

The Michael Shermer Show

Michael Shermer

Dialogue, Science, Reason, Michaelshermer, Natural Sciences, Skeptic

4.4 • 921 Ratings

🗓️ 29 March 2022

⏱️ 86 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Michael Shermer speaks with Professor of International Relations, Dr. Jacek Kugler, about his Power Transition Theory which states that an even distribution of political, economic, and military capabilities between contending groups of states is likely to increase the probability of war; peace is preserved best when there is an imbalance of national capabilities between disadvantaged and advantaged nations; the aggressor will come from a small group of dissatisfied strong countries; and it is the weaker, rather than the stronger power that is most likely to be the aggressor.

Shermer and Kugler discuss: Power Transition Theory and how it applies to Putin and Russia today; the relationship between a nation’s economic strength and its political power; where China figures into the future of the new world order; what happens if Putin succeeds in Ukraine? What if he fails?; What should the U.S. should have done in response to the annexation of Crimea, intervention in Syria, the destruction of Georgia and Chechnya, the imprisonment and murder of Russian dissidents?; What should NATO do now or in the near future?; and more…

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to the Michael Sherman Show.
0:11.6	Welcome to the Michael Sherman Show
0:20.0	Welcome to the Michael Sherman Show. This is your host Michael Sherman. Today is a special episode of the show. I'm titling it, titling it Putin and power a conversation with Dr. Yasek Kugler on how his power transition theory
0:30.6	explains why Putin invaded Ukraine and what China and the US should do about it.
0:36.0	Dr. Yessik Kugler is the Elizabeth Helm-Rosenkran's professor of international relations
0:42.4	in the Department of Politics and Policy at
0:44.8	Claremont Graduate University. Through extensive publications on the causes and
0:50.0	consequences of war he has forged a reputation for innovative formal
0:54.3	modeling and empirical analysis. His path-breaking work on political
0:59.1	performance provides for the first time a comprehensive political measure to compare and assess the capacity of governments
1:06.4	to implement goals regardless of regime type or economic development.
1:11.0	Dr. Kugler received his PhD from the University of Michigan and
1:15.1	an MA and B. A in political science from UCLA. He's the former president of
1:19.6	the International Studies Association, the ISIA, and past president of Peace Science Society.
1:27.0	Yes, there can be a science of peace.
1:30.4	He has served as the co-editor of International Interactions.
1:33.8	He was a faculty member at Vanderbilt University and Boston University, and a research scholar
1:38.8	at Harvard, as well as project director at the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan.
1:45.0	He's a visiting scholar at UCLA, the California Institute of Technology,
1:49.0	and the Hatfield School of Policy.
1:52.0	He's also consulted for UN AIDS, IMF, the State Department and a
1:58.0	number of U.S. governmental agencies and private businesses.
	...

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