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Freakonomics Radio

233. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future

Freakonomics Radio

Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher

Documentary, Society & Culture

4.632K Ratings

🗓️ 14 January 2016

⏱️ 47 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren't punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science -- and now even you could become a superforecaster.

Transcript

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0:00.0

There is a website called Fantasy Football Nerd. It aggregates predictions from roughly

0:16.2

40 NFL pundits to produce what it calls the industry's most accurate consensus rankings.

0:23.0

Now, how accurate is the consensus? Let me give you an example. Earlier this season,

0:29.1

the Carolina Panthers were playing the Seattle Seahawks only two of the pundits picked Carolina

0:34.2

to win. 36 picked Seattle. And you can see why. Seattle has been one of the best teams

0:40.0

in the league for the past several seasons. They won the Super Bowl two years ago, nearly

0:44.0

repeated last year. They'd be playing Carolina in Seattle, where the home crowd is famously

0:49.8

almost punishingly supportive. So even though Seattle had won only two games this season

0:55.7

against three losses, and even though Carolina was an undefeated 4-0 at this point, the

1:01.0

experts liked Seattle. They liked their pedigree, but Carolina won the game, 27 to 23.

1:07.8

It's the hook and ladder. Lock it has it. Lock it's being tackled, slips it, balls loose,

1:13.2

recovered by Seattle at the 40. Carolina has won the football game. What an unbelievable

1:20.2

validating respect-taking road win for the Carolina Panthers.

1:26.4

Soon afterward, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton faced the media.

1:29.8

Cam, before the Seattle game, a lot of the national media was down on this team. After

1:35.0

you guys won that game, now a lot of the national media said, this is one of the best teams

1:38.7

we've seen this year. Different find the comical the way that a lot of these people think

1:43.4

that, hey, this team is all right, this team is not good.

1:46.6

But I find all media comical at times. Because I think you guys' profession, you can easily

1:54.4

take back what you say. And you don't get, it's not danger when somebody said it. If it

2:00.9

was a pay cut, or if it was an incentive, if picking teams each and every week, you

2:07.1

may get a raise. I guarantee if people will be watching what they say then.

...

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