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Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

220 | Lara Buchak on Risk and Rationality

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

Sean Carroll | Wondery

Society & Culture, Physics, Philosophy, Science, Ideas, Society

4.84.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 December 2022

⏱️ 77 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Life is rich with moments of uncertainty, where we’re not exactly sure what’s going to happen next. We often find ourselves in situations where we have to choose between different kinds of uncertainty; maybe one option is very likely to have a “pretty good” outcome, while another has some probability for “great” and some for “truly awful.” In such circumstances, what’s the rational way to choose? Is it rational to go to great lengths to avoid choices where the worst outcome is very bad? Lara Buchak argues that it is, thereby expanding and generalizing the usual rules of rational choice in conditions of risk.

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Lara Buchak received a Ph.D. in philosophy from Princeton University. She is currently a professor of philosophy at Princeton. Her research interests include decision theory, social choice theory, epistemology, ethics, and the philosophy of religion. She was the inaugural winner of the Alvin Plantinga Prize of the American Philosophical Association. Her book Risk and Rationality proposes a new way of dealing with risk in rational-choice theory.


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Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello everyone, welcome to the Mindscape Podcast. I'm your host, Sean Carroll.

0:04.0

A couple years ago, a little more than a couple years ago,

0:07.0

episode 86 of Mindscape, we had Lord Martin Reese on the show.

0:12.0

Martin is a very well-known and respected theoretical astrophysicist,

0:16.0

but he's also someone who worries about the future of humanity.

0:19.0

So we were talking about existential risks, the prospects of post-humanity,

0:24.0

stuff like that.

0:25.0

And naturally we talked about one example that was in the news not long before,

0:30.0

which was a large Hadron collider, the giant particle accelerator in Geneva,

0:35.0

which we don't remember now because it didn't happen,

0:37.0

but people were worried at the time about the chance that you would make a tiny black hole

0:42.0

or a new kind of particle that would utterly destroy the earth.

0:46.0

And physicists, of course, worried about this too.

0:49.0

They don't want to die because they did some particle physics experiment gone terribly wrong.

0:53.0

So they thought about it. They thought about it really hard.

0:56.0

And they said, as far as we can tell, the chances of this happening are just incredibly, incredibly tiny,

1:02.0

we should just go ahead.

1:04.0

There were people out there who said, what do you mean incredibly tiny?

1:08.0

How tiny does it have to be if we're really talking about the end of all life on earth?

1:15.0

And Martin Reese had an interesting rejoinder to that.

1:18.0

He said, well, there's also a probability that you will find a free energy source

1:24.0

that will completely remove our dependence on far and oil forever.

...

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