Welcome back everybody to the PFF NFL show, Trevor Sikima and Dalton Washman, back with you guys again, here to preview every game that we got in week 12.

Week 12 of the NFL season, man, it feels like it is flying by.

And Dalton, we were talking about this a little bit before the show.

On paper, the matchups might seem a little bit lopsided, but you know what you say. Winnable games are only winnable if you win them. And I feel like week 12 just has a lot of those games that we're going to break down here on the show. Tell you who we think is going to win by how much. We'll give you a score prediction, of course, for, you know, the betting lines for those who might be interested in doing that kind of a thing. But we're really going to tell you what we think matters most towards these games and where maybe a couple upsets could come into play for a slate that feels like a lot of heavy favorites, but we know that the NFL can get crazy, Dalton. How you doing, my friend? Good, good. Trevor, you know

this is the time of year when things start to get really tense in these games and you find out who's really got kind of that competitive spirit to get through adversity. And I think you get those games where it's contenders versus spoilers. And the spoilers have nothing to lose. Just go out there and play really hard and see what happens. Right. So I think this is going to get to be a lot of fun starting this week. And we got a lot of teams that really need a win this week to get

themselves back on track. That's the thing is there are a lot of teams where you might look at it, you might look at the matchup, you might say to yourself, okay, like this is going to be an easy one for this team. And maybe some of them will be, although I think an easy win in the NFL. I don't know if that exists. But the fact of the matter is that you still have to go out there and execute the way that you know that you can or some of these teams can really sneak up on you. And if instead you get into a situation where you end up dropping a game that nobody thought you were going to drop. Well, then all of a sudden, the playoff seating, the NFL draft seating, it all goes to hell. But we're going to tell you exactly what we think is going to happen. This week, overall on the season, since we picked these games, just the straight-up winners, we don't pick them against the spread. We are both, once again, tied, 107 and 56 and 1, of course. So we are tied with the same exact record 11 weeks through the

season both you and I went 10 and 5 last week we got a couple of games that we once again

disagree with here for week 12 which I'm excited excited to sort of jump into but before we get

into that got to let everybody know right off the top black

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out at the top for anybody that doesn't have a PFF plus sub. Now is the time to get it. Black Friday, that's the promo code for you guys. No spaces, by the way. Just one more, Black Friday. All right, let's get into Thursday night football. Buffalo Bills coming off a big win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They're traveling to Houston to take on the Texans.

And where the Texans offense, oh, Thursday night football, Buffalo Bills coming off a big win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

They're traveling to Houston to take on the Texans. And where the Texans offense a little up and down, the bills, they're certainly going to have to take care of business against one of the best defenses in the NFL in Houston. And playing at home makes that all the more difficult. You want to talk about the bills here for this one or the Texans where we start?? I'll start with Josh Allen because he's well, the center of the universe there in Buffalo, right? When you look at the splits in his numbers this year, he's been outstanding against two things, a standard rush. When he's not blitz, you just get that four-man rush. He has the fourth best passing grade in the NFL and against zone coverage. He has the six best passing grade in the NFL. Now, these are two things that the Texans bring a lot, right? The standard rush. You talk about them having the third lowest pass blitz rate in the league and the fifth highest zone coverage rate, despite having a really good secondary in a talented group of corners that includes Derek Stingley and Kamari Lasseter. They don't play a ton of man coverage. Now, what is interesting about this matchup is when the Bill, when the Texans, I should say, really shut down the Bill's offense last year held Josh Allen to just nine of 30 when it comes to completions. They went with more man coverage than usual. They got a little bit more aggressive on the back end. And they were not afraid of this Bill's wide receiving core, right? And even this year, they still don't have that top guy.

It's Josh Palmer.

It's, you know, Terrell Shavers was making plays last week. It's a lot of the tight ends. But Dalton Kincaid's going to be out this week. I'd be curious if they go back to that approach again, where last year they used man coverage right around a third of the time against the bills in that win over them last year.

I think the Texans, if they wanted to do that, they can, right? The question is, okay, can you load up and stop the run with your front seven, which they've been a lot better with lately, too, top 10 in run defense this year, run defense great, I should say this year as well. So that's going to be key without Kincaid. I believe Curtis Samuel is out for the bills also. This is going to be a game where Josh Allen's going to have to take advantage when the Texans are in zone coverage and he's still going to have to work around a really good four-man rush. Yeah, I think a lot of the big plays, well, not a lot of, just some of the big plays that we got last week from the bills on offense was really just Tampa not having the passers that they needed to. They don't have the finishers, if you will, on their defensive line. And there were a couple of times when Josh Allen is just in a scramble drill. And the receivers very clearly had some good chemistry on where to go. And Josh was able to see those guys. And so the breakdowns and coverage from Tampa Bay is something that I think really hurt them last week. And Houston's one of those teams that they know Josh Allen pretty well. They've obviously rattled him as of last year. And so they know what he's capable of. I feel like they're going to be a little bit more buttoned up. They're going to be more ready for it than Tampa's defense was last week.

So I think they're definitely going to give the bills more of a run for their money than the Buccaneers defense did the week prior. On the Texan side of things, C.J. Stroud not going to play in this game. Once again, he's missing. This would be his third game, I believe, missed due to that concussion. we'll get Davis Mills once again.

And if you just look at the last two games

that Davis Mills has played, it played really well, played much better last week, I should say, against the Tennessee Titans, but then the week prior against the Jags, there were a lot of turnover-worthy plays. Now, he limited those again last week. So you'll like to see him get a little bit more comfortable, the more reps that he's getting as the start of this season. But specifically going up against what he might see against the Buffalo Bills, the Bills have been running a lot of too high coverages, I would say for the last couple of years. But specifically this season, they have been more aggressive and they have gone with more of a single high approach and they

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