2025 Mid-Year Housing Market Update - 361
How to Buy a Home: The #1 First Time Home Buyer Podcast
David Sidoni
4.8 • 891 Ratings
🗓️ 7 July 2025
⏱️ 57 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mortgage rates are dropping — so why are buyers still stuck on the sidelines? This episode breaks down the latest market update with July 2025 data, unpacking how inflation, job reports, and interest rate speculation are shaping first-time buyer behavior.
In this episode, David delivers a critical market update recorded just after the July 4th weekend in 2025. Despite a notable drop in mortgage rates — the fifth consecutive week of declines — most buyers still aren’t making moves. Why? The answers lie in economic signals that go beyond interest rates.
You’ll learn how job market strength and inflation fears are keeping the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, despite public pressure. Plus, David breaks down how tariffs and the PCE index (the Fed’s favorite inflation tracker) are working against rate relief. With clarity and candor, he explains why rate drops aren’t enough to reboot buyer confidence — and why timing your purchase based on Fed headlines may be a risky move.
First-time homebuyers will walk away with a clearer picture of what’s happening behind the scenes — and why understanding market conditions is more important than listening to outdated advice from friends or family.
Quote
“Mortgage rates have fallen for the fifth straight week. Buyers aren’t budging though — they’re still waiting.” – David Sidoni
Highlights
- Freddie Mac reports the biggest one-week drop in rates since March 2025
- Fed rate cuts unlikely after strong June jobs report and inflation uncertainty
- PCE inflation index still above target, with tariffs poised to raise prices further
- Why first-time buyers should stop trying to “time the market”
- CME FedWatch projections: July cut odds drop to 5%, September cut down to 67%
- Clear explanation of how job market strength delays rate relief
Referenced Episodes
279 - New Build vs Resale Houses for First Time Homebuyers
Connect with me to find a trusted realtor in your area or to answer your burning questions!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel @HowToBuyaHome
Instagram @HowtoBuyAHomePodcast
Tik Tok @HowToBuyAHome
Visit our Resource Center to "Ask David" AND get your FREE Home Buying Starter Kit!
David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone looking to buy their first home. It offers expert advice, actionable tips, and inspiring stories from real first-time homebuyers. With a focus on making the home-buying process accessible and understandable, David breaks down complex topics into easy-to-follow steps, covering everything from budgeting and financing to finding the right home and making an offer.
Subscribe for regular market updates, and leave a review to help us reach more people. Ready for an honest, informed home-buying experience? Viva la Unicorn Revolution - join us!
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Hey, homies. Before I start the show, this is a breaking news addition to the podcast that you're about to hear. |
| 0:06.5 | It was originally accorded on June 26th. This new data came from half a dozen sources that reported on Friday, July 3rd. |
| 0:14.9 | So this is an update you can use with all the rest of the information. |
| 0:18.2 | Freddie Mac reported that mortgage interest rates dropped to the |
| 0:21.3 | biggest one-week drop we've seen since early March, down to 6.67, the fifth straight week of |
| 0:28.6 | declines. But Lisa Sturvant, who is the chief economist for Bright MLS, said that, quote, |
| 0:35.8 | affordability is still a challenge, unquote, which means even with |
| 0:39.6 | these rates dipping, we're not seeing the floodgates of buyers come out. Joel Kahn, the MBA |
| 0:45.4 | deputy chief economist to Mortgage Brokers Association, he said, quote, uncertainty continues to |
| 0:52.3 | hold homebuyers out of the market, unquote. |
| 0:54.8 | So if you're wondering why the market still feels like it's stuck a molasses, well, the jobs report |
| 0:58.9 | also dropped, and we got that information just a few days ago. |
| 1:03.1 | The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped the June update with 147,000 jobs added, beating |
| 1:10.3 | expectations by 37,000. And unemployment held at 4.1%. So what does |
| 1:16.5 | that mean for mortgage rates? Well, there were a bunch of different articles that talked about it, |
| 1:21.5 | but in, you know, Federal Reserve speak and them cutting their rates, strong job numbers, that equals no immediate rate cuts. |
| 1:32.1 | The CME Fed Watch tool says there's now only a 5% chance that the Fed cuts the rates in their |
| 1:39.1 | July 30th meeting. That's down from 24% odds just the day before. So it wasn't good to start with, |
| 1:45.6 | and now it's really dropping. The odds in September for a cut happening then, that dropped |
| 1:51.4 | from 94% down to 67% based on this information. So the Fed's on hold. And another reason for that |
| 2:00.1 | is they're still spooked out by inflation with tariffs |
| 2:02.4 | still on the table. One of the things they look at is the PCE index, and that's their favorite |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from David Sidoni, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of David Sidoni and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.