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On The Tape

2022 Year In Review + Listener Mailbag

On The Tape

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6757 Ratings

🗓️ 30 December 2022

⏱️ 51 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses are back with a special listener mailbag edition of On The Tape. We start today’s episode with a discussion on valuations and why they really mattered in 2022 (2:30). When were the “seeds sown” for the current market downturn we’re seeing and what are earnings looking like in 2023? (17:00) Hand up, we got the gold and silver market wrong in 2022, will things pick up next year (20:30)? The gang outlines what they think the energy story looks like next year (22:30). What geopolitical stories have the potential to impact the market in 2023 (32:45)? What’s left to discuss about Tesla story (35:00)? After the break we’re answering some of your questions (41:30)! We wrap with Danny’s picks for NFL Week 17 (52:00). A Closer Look At Quantitative Tightening Implications: https://trowe.com/3WwvDCr Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We’re on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Last podcast of 2022, it's been a great year. We want to obviously thank our audience. I obviously

0:07.4

have to thank both Danny Moses and Dan Nathan. I think the three of us have done a decent job

0:14.2

of navigating what's been a pretty interesting year. I'll say that at the end of last year,

0:20.1

from the fall of 21 into early 2022, we saw the

0:25.3

S&P basically rally from about 4,450 to 4,800 and change. I think we understood to a certain

0:33.5

extent what was going on, but it clearly had us confused, but we remained steadfast into belief that 2022 is going to be a challenging year. And now some 1,000 S&P points or so later,

0:43.9

here we are. And a lot happened in 2022. And the thing that I take away from it the most, Danny

0:49.4

Moses, is, you know what? And the long term valuations actually do matter. And I think what a lot of us learned

0:56.5

the hard way in a zero interest rate environment where money is rolling around and effectively

1:02.9

free, people make a lot of mistakes and they confuse bull markets with being a genius. I think

1:08.8

2022 we learned that valuations actually matter.

1:12.6

And forget about the S&P being down a thousand points from its high.

1:16.4

We've seen stocks come off anywhere from 50 to 80 percent.

1:20.5

And these are not small stocks.

1:22.0

I mean, these are major companies that have lost in some cases, as I mentioned,

1:26.8

almost 80 percent of their value.

1:29.6

Yeah. So, Guy, looking back at 2022, there was a lot that obviously happened and a lot of

1:34.5

it may continue in 23, but just some of these things, right? We entered 2022 with the Fed talking

1:39.8

about the tapering, which they obviously ended in the first quarter, followed by the Fed actually raising rates, followed by quantitative tightening.

1:46.9

We had a briefly inverted yield curve in April that became basically permanent in July when

1:50.7

people realized that that was going to keep raising rates.

1:53.0

So that happened.

...

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