4.6 • 757 Ratings
🗓️ 30 December 2022
⏱️ 51 minutes
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0:00.0 | Last podcast of 2022, it's been a great year. We want to obviously thank our audience. I obviously |
0:07.4 | have to thank both Danny Moses and Dan Nathan. I think the three of us have done a decent job |
0:14.2 | of navigating what's been a pretty interesting year. I'll say that at the end of last year, |
0:20.1 | from the fall of 21 into early 2022, we saw the |
0:25.3 | S&P basically rally from about 4,450 to 4,800 and change. I think we understood to a certain |
0:33.5 | extent what was going on, but it clearly had us confused, but we remained steadfast into belief that 2022 is going to be a challenging year. And now some 1,000 S&P points or so later, |
0:43.9 | here we are. And a lot happened in 2022. And the thing that I take away from it the most, Danny |
0:49.4 | Moses, is, you know what? And the long term valuations actually do matter. And I think what a lot of us learned |
0:56.5 | the hard way in a zero interest rate environment where money is rolling around and effectively |
1:02.9 | free, people make a lot of mistakes and they confuse bull markets with being a genius. I think |
1:08.8 | 2022 we learned that valuations actually matter. |
1:12.6 | And forget about the S&P being down a thousand points from its high. |
1:16.4 | We've seen stocks come off anywhere from 50 to 80 percent. |
1:20.5 | And these are not small stocks. |
1:22.0 | I mean, these are major companies that have lost in some cases, as I mentioned, |
1:26.8 | almost 80 percent of their value. |
1:29.6 | Yeah. So, Guy, looking back at 2022, there was a lot that obviously happened and a lot of |
1:34.5 | it may continue in 23, but just some of these things, right? We entered 2022 with the Fed talking |
1:39.8 | about the tapering, which they obviously ended in the first quarter, followed by the Fed actually raising rates, followed by quantitative tightening. |
1:46.9 | We had a briefly inverted yield curve in April that became basically permanent in July when |
1:50.7 | people realized that that was going to keep raising rates. |
1:53.0 | So that happened. |
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