Good morning. Today is Friday, November 4th. It is seven minutes after nine with Kendall and Casey on 93

WIBC and let's get right into it with the latest 538 poll. This poll, Rob, says that the Senate is currently a toss up in the party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win control of the Senate.

They'll have the majority and they are saying that Nevada and Georgia most likely will go to Republicans.

However, they're not determining what's going to happen in Pennsylvania. And later in the show, we're going to talk about how we've seen another poll that states that Oz is now beating Federman.

Yeah. So what 538 does is it is sort of a compilation of all the polls and then they list odds based on what will happen. So it's like you will see this in sports. It's a simulator. Like you run it through X amount of times.

And based on the information that's entered in, this is the most likely result. If you're a person who enjoys betting on sporting events, you may use that accordingly, whatever.

Of course, it doesn't mean it's going to happen. It just means from a computer model standpoint. Here are the most likely results. And these guys at 538, just a couple of weeks ago,

were like, it was like 71% right. And this is why we have told you for months now, do not pay attention to any polling in August and September for anything other than fun,

because until you get to the end, it is mostly about voter manipulation. And then at the end, they try to get it right because that's what everybody will go off going forward.

Well, so and so was the most likely. And now according to 538, who just a couple of weeks ago said 71% chance that the Democrats keep the Senate, it is now the most likely result is that the Republicans will hold 51 seats.

They now have somewhat, they do them based on dots. And there's enough dots in the one that have Republicans at 53, that that's even a plausible outcome, which the point of all this is that it's utterly ridiculous, that just two or three weeks ago, you had it as 71% chance for the Democrats, because they never had a 71% chance of the Democrats, the Republicans were always the favorite to pick up the Senate, not because of anything they've done.

But because the Democrats are so if I might steal a word from Hillary Clinton, deplorable, why is it that that happens that early on, it always seems like the Democrats trend, and then when it comes closer to the election or the midterm, the Republicans have this final push, I mean, it happened with Trump, when he won the presidential election, it was Hillary's winning, she's breaking the glass ceiling and then surprised, surprised to many people, he ended up winning.

I think there's a couple things that play one, there's a whole bunch of people who don't want to say their opinion publicly. So like, here's an interesting, interesting piece of information, and it's totally anecdotal, but like where I live in Brownsburg, there have been very long lines in order to vote. Now I didn't experience that when we went, but I've been told by, you know, multiple people now that there, there have been long lines and in other communities, there are long lines.

In these suburban communities, let's face it, no one's Uber fired up about voting for Secretary of State or U.S. Senate, right? I mean, there is something driving people to want to be out there to vote, and I think anecdotally it is the school board races, and anecdotally, if you say it's a school board race, it's probably people who are frustrated with the Uber liberalism that has been taking place in public schools across Central Indiana.

Those people aren't vocal on your towny chatter boards, they're not publicly expressing their opinions that their kids soccer matches because they don't want deal with it. They don't want deal with the maniacs, and I think the same thing is true. If you extrapolate that out to a national level, people don't want to tell a pollster what their opinion is, they don't want to say that I'm for the Republican because or publicly that they're for the Republican because they don't want to deal with it.

But you better believe they're going to walk in there and press that button. And so I think that's the biggest thing is it's hard. It's harder to find these people than you think. And so the polls, especially three, four, five months out, people are going, well, yeah, I'm, I'm with the Democrat. I'm with this person or that person.

When in reality, when they start actually thinking about it or going, do I really want, do I really want, you know, six more years, because the senator is a six year election, it don't want that. And they're ultimately going to vote for balanced government.

This poll goes on to say that they believe Arizona and New Hampshire might go blue. However, the Senate races in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin are close and likely will result in Republican winners.

Do you agree with that? I think, and so this for a while it's going to be 52, 48. However, now the other website real clear politics is it'll be 54, 46.

So it depends on how the cookie crumbles in Georgia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire looks like the most likely three, where creative jellybean counting might be able to still save a Democrat.

Colorado is now a toss up, which is super interesting. Arizona's a toss up. I still think it's probably 52, 48, which again, holding for the most part is about voter manipulation until you get to October.

It's Kendall and Casey on 93 WIBC and Joe Biden has issued a rallying cry for the preservation of democracy. He also issued a warning that America could face political violence as it heads towards next week's term elections.

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